Friday we saw a great jobs number but… were the knock-it-out-of the ballpark numbers really indicative of a (finally) robust economy? Hmmmm, methinks there is more to it all. You’re shocked right? I spoke with Matt Ray yesterday on America’s Morning news about the jobs report and how I thought the data could be misleading. You can listen to our chat by clicking here. Today, after seeing the NFIB report, I decided the topic deserved a thorough analysis, so I’ve added a lot here to what we discussed. To start with, this number can be quite volatile, so if we look at a three-month rolling average, the current gain is still 26,000 less than the average during the first six months of the year. We did like to see a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings last month, bringing the annual rate up to 2.5%, which is the strongest in the past six years. That bodes well for holiday spending, which ought to have companies like Amazon pleased as punch. If we look at the labor-force participation rate however, that remained unchanged at 62.4%, which is 0.5 lower than in January. This data point is one that causes yours truly much angst. Think of this as a measure of what percentage of the population is rowing the economic row boat. The more that row, the faster we can go. Today we have roughly the same portion we had in the late 1970s, not exactly a robust growth period for the nation! http://elleseconomy.com/2015/11/10/great-jobs-number-but/
Not really a "great" jobs number. The huge majority of jobs created were for ages 55-64. On the one hand, that's bad because it's the group with the least "wage bargaining" power... on the other hand, it's also tragic that so many retirement-age seniors need to take menial jobs to make ends meet. I find it unnerving to see 70-75 year old grocery baggers at the super market. Geez.... people my father's age bagging groceries so they can afford to eat?? (Too bad they are Caucasian... If they were Mexican illegals, Blacks, or Muslims... the Leftist/Progressive U.S. Government would be subsidizing them with monthly EBT cards.) Excuse me while I go PUKE!
Didn't see / hear / read the report Any idea how many added were for the solely for holiday season (temp positions) RN
165,000 of the jobs came from the birth death model. Even though more businesses have been closing than opening ever since obama came into office. Let that sink in.
The job number peaks late in the cycle. We had 500-600K numbers early in 2000. This is a post-crash cycle and so it's muted. We are absolutely within six months of the peak employment number. This is the time to short, outright.
This job market just can't improve much...the fundamentals of foreign labor and foreign outsourcing in the USA are just overwhelming. Until there is: 1) immigration reform 2) tax reform 3) tort reform 4) gov't spending reform just....."fuggetaboutit"....no chance for a strong labor market in the USA any time soon.