GPRO 2017 Q1 result prediction - GoPro, Inc (short)

Hello Elite Traders,

I used data like Google search volume, website traffic trend from Compete/SimilarWeb and built a few python scripts to crawl public data that could be useful for forecasting earnings. Based on my analysis and models, I predicted that GoPro's 2017 Q1 earning will be a disappointment – compared to 2016 Q1, revenue drops by 28% to 46%.Let's see if this works.

GoPro earning 4/27

 

I'd agree with your earnings assessment, but I the upside isn't enough to parlay that into a winning position. The short is too much risk if they making a reasonable showing. The options look reasonable enough. I guess my problem is that the downside on meager earnings isn't that big, while the upside on an (unlikely) beat would devastate the short trader.

 

Looking at the Option Volatility charts, GPRO's option sentiment is neutral for a price of $9 in May and pushing towards $11.5 price in mid-June and down to $11 by end of Jun. Lets see how all of this pans out.

My python scripts alert me on potential option trades.
- m

 

There are some very good and inexpensive GoPro clones (e.g., Yi) that are doing well in the action camera market.

 

This thing deserves 15% Gap up tomorrow, great ER results

 

Did you do the trade? How did it pan out for you?

 

If he bought the $10 puts like he said in his journal.... he made about 50%.

 

GPRO still remains losing and unclear for the future.

 

I bought puts option at a strike price of $10, so the trade worked out fine, but my forecast was wrong, so I am working on revising the model and data being used. In addition, in this case GoPro actually slightly beat the earning expectation...so I am rethinking the overall strategy.