Steve Jobs passed away which was very tragic and my heart goes out to him, however, I think its time to short tech in general. AAPL seems especially vulnerable. I have shorted AAPL at 379.19 cost basis.
vulnerable to what ? This stock is a beast! They've been growing revenues every quarter, they've got a PE of 14. Technically, as of late November they've been making higher highs and lower lows. Not something worth shorting IMO right now. Plenty of other beaten down stocks to short.
I agree with wiesman02. "The Trend Is Your Friend", and the AAPL uptrend is still in good shape (see attached chart). I went long AAPL on 12/29/11 at 404.37. As long as the trend is up, and AAPL's Weekly Prices stay above the 200 day Moving Average, I'll stick with it. The chart tells where people are putting their money. That's what counts. All the "Talk" about what may or not happen without Steve Jobs (a Tragic Loss!) is just guesswork.
Every time I try to make friends with a trend, it stabs me in the back, takes my lunch money, and disappears...
Trends are no guarantee of course, they just increase your probabilities for success. Still, I've yet to find anything else nearly as reliable to base my bets on. But don't forget to honor your Sell-Stop, because the Market Can Do Anything!!!
Advice for the future: - You may not want to short a stock where the phone sells out in an entire region in under 10 minutes (Hong Kong), and an entire country in three hours (China) - You may not want to short a stock where the company just expanded into 20+ countries - You may not want to short a product where 3 year olds are begging for it for Christmas, 7 year olds cry if you buy them the competition, teenagers must have it to be cool, adults want it for work, and grandparents want it for its ease of use - You may not want to short a product that is constantly on back order in every store across the US during the entire span of the quarter while having increased their production significantly I'll admit though that at this point we may be nearing a short area. I'm not going to be shorting, but I can concede that we're closing in on where it'd be reasonable to start shorting. It wasn't reasonable sub 400.