GME/AMC bull trap, trading idea and a "reverse similarity" to SPY

Discussion in 'Options' started by eldorado1, Jul 3, 2021.



  1. I recently realized this and hope you can find it helpful too.

    GME stocks seem very attractive for quick gains (duh). You can play a spread, such as a really wide OTM call butterfly, with a risk reward ratio that can reach 10:1 and beyond with a breakeven point not too far from current price, for no more than $1.5 per contract. When I looked at the Black-Scholes risk profile on TOS I was sure I hit the jackpot (Do you recall how many times you thought that? I surely lost count). Even if I get it right 1 of 4 times, I reckoned, I will still stand a pretty good chance to profit.

    The idea was to buy the spread, wait for the GMEs and AMCs to get close to the the midpoint of the 10-15 strike apart butterfly and then buy another OTM butterfly based on the same methodology. In that way, create a huge profit zone. Since now my initial spread would be deep in the money, I would profit if the underlying stays put, decreases moderately or increases. If it explodes upwards again I could simply buy another similar spread at midpoint of the last butterfly. What could go wrong?

    I traded this way for the last several months. Mostly with no more than 10 days to expiration. It rarely rarely worked. The stocks were not getting close to that midpoint but rather decreasing. Against all odds (the way I was perceiving them) I was constantly losing money. Even when it did work, a handful of times, it was not a with WSB stocks - it worked well when FUBU and VUZI were trending upwards. AMC, WISH, SPCE, BB, NOK and the others always failed me.

    I looked at their charts recently and noticed something that I didn't fully realize before. They have few spikes and the rest of the time they just deteriorate or trade sideways for days and days until the next round. It reminds me of the stock indexes, but in reverse. Not in the final result but in having short bigger moves in one direction while longer, moderate moves to the opposite one. Previously, I had some clue WSBs work this way, but till now I never traded them with this data in mind. I always approached AMC the same way as NVDA.

    So now I tried putting this observation into play. on July 2nd I sold a SPCE vertical Call spread 20 minutes into the trading session and closed it with a nice profit. This opportunity came since SPCE had more than 20% premarket move up. By market close, to my delight, all that was left from the $11 underlying gain was merely $1.75.

    Moreover, pricing of SPY and QQQ puts have the characteristics of WSBs calls - expensive far OTMs - good for wide, cheap butterflies and verticals .But only seemingly. A SPY OTM wide put butterfly would look attractive if you would not be aware enough how the market moves (believe me I tried trading those too, too many times).

    If you have a strategy that works well with SPY's ongoing gains, it may be interesting to apply it turned over on WSBs, like my successful, and to be further tested, SPCE bear bet.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2021
  2. traider

    traider

    10:1
    unless market maker priced it really off your odds of hitting are not high.
     
  3. I said the system fails.