http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-guess-ges-150203727.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/guess-misses-4q-profit-forecasts-203558839.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.GES.NYS http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GES+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With GES at 17.48 Jan '17 22/25 bear call spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/270 = 11.1 % in 280 days or 14.5% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(30) - .076(270) - .094(135) = 24.9 - 20.5 - 12.7 = -8.3 Price.......... Profit / Loss ..........ROM % 12.50................ 30.00.............. 11.10% 15.00................ 30.00.............. 11.10% 20.00................ 30.00.............. 11.10% 22.00................ 30.00.............. 11.10% 22.30.................. 0.00............... 0.00% 23.92............. (162.40)........... -54.13% 25.00............. (270.00)........... -88.90% 27.50............. (270.00)........... -88.90% 30.00............. (270.00)........... -88.90% Filled at $30 I have AT&T and ADT expiring today.