Future Spread Trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Junkou, Apr 17, 2020.

  1. Junkou

    Junkou

    In the last four week, I have showed the asset allocation strategy:

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/journals-of-conservative-investing.342056/

    Performance as below:
    First week: 14.75%
    Second week: 5.33%
    Third week: -13.21%
    Fourth week: 20.48%

    4-week compound return: 26.4%

    In this thread, I will show the future spread trading using NASDAQ 100 micro e-mini futures (MNQ) and Dow Jones micro e-mini futures (MYM) based on our machine learning model. We will only use 2x leverage on one side, which means if NDX is up 1.5%, and Dow Jones up is up 1%, we will get 1% spread return: 2x(1.5%-1%) assuming long NDX and short Dow Jones.

    Position for Monday, April 20:

    Long MNQ
    Short MYM

    Adjusted positions to be dollar neutral.
     
  2. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    So basically the direction with the margin is your profit side and if you get direction correct you profit and if not, you've got a hedge to reduce your loss but also your profit.

    Do you hold until profit over all then take or do you have risk rules where you close out??
     
  3. traderjo

    traderjo

    -For this pair using Micro contracts do you get same margin offset as the Emini contracts?
    - Do you leg in or use some advance Autospreader?
    - Does use of Micros gives you better ratio control as compared to using the Emini?
     
  4. Junkou

    Junkou

    1. Yes you will get the margin offset.
    2. I open both legs at the same time.
    3. Micros give much more flexibility in managing exposure, and ratio control as well
     
  5. Junkou

    Junkou

    Monday, April 20

    YM dropped 2.8%, NQ drop 1.3%. Net gain 2x(-1.3%-(-2.8%))=3%.

    Very safe profit.
     
  6. Junkou

    Junkou

    The model will tell whether to change positions at the end of each day.
     
  7. Junkou

    Junkou

    Positions for Tuesday, April 21:

    50% long in MNQ, 50% long in M2k (Russell 2000 micro e-mini)
    100% short in MYM

    Adjusted positions to be dollar neutral.
     
  8. traderjo

    traderjo

    THIS IS 3 LEGS ! does this mean directional risk on one of the legs
     
  9. Junkou

    Junkou

    No, it's still same risk (actually less risk) as two legs.
     
  10. Junkou

    Junkou

    Tuesday, April 21:

    Market record the biggest drop in 3 weeks as the oil slum deepen. MNQ dropped 3%, M2K fell 2%, MYM was down 2.45%. Today's return is 2x(-3%*0.5-2%*0.5-(-2.45%))=-0.1%

    The portfolio is only down 0.1% today while S&P 500 fell 3%.

    See, this is the beauty of the spread strategy.

    Market is in the uncertain regime. We will hold cash Wednesday, April 22.
     
    #10     Apr 21, 2020
    shatteredx likes this.