Fortune article from March 31st. "Trump is knowingly steering the economy off the cliff with tariffs The problem is not tariffs—the problem is Donald Trump, plain and simple. Per our Yale CEO Caucus survey results, 90% of CEOs actually support tariffs, when they are used strategically and selectively. These business leaders support the use of selective tariffs to rectify genuine trade imbalances and constrain foreign dumping into the U.S., undermining U.S. producers in sectors such as steel. But these worthy goals often seem to be subjugated to Trump’s personality-driven vendettas, such as punishing longtime nemesis Justin Trudeau; and even more importantly, Trump’s idiosyncratic, capricious rollout of tariffs has made it all but impossible for companies to invest at all, hampering Trump’s own stated goal of bringing investment and jobs back to the U.S. Already, there is a confusing array of 12,500 tariff categories across 200 trading partners. We tallied up Trump’s tariff pronouncements over the last two months and found no less than a head-spinning 107 instances of paradoxical flip-flops on tariff policy, often with same-day reversals. That does not even account for often contradictory guidance from Trump’s deputies, which are then subsequently overruled by Trump himself. Businesses need predictability and stability; no company can authorize billions in capital spending to build new plants or hire new workers when trade policy changes not day by day, not hour by hour, but in some cases, literally minute by minute. During our Yale CEO Caucus this month,CEOs groaned and cringed each time CNBC’s Eamon Javers read off a new tariff policy reversal, with seven flip-flops over our three-hour event. Trump’s defenders argue this is all part of his “art of the deal”—to punch counterparties in the face so hard that they are knocked off balance and are all but begging for a deal. But the reality is, Trump is getting snookered in these deals, as companies merely repackage existing and preplanned capex spending into gauzy, headline-drawing “announcements” of “new investments” in the U.S. The veneer of glitz and glamour of fawning Oval Office press conferences announcing these new investments hides a much seamier reality, as much-ballyhooed new “investments” such as Foxconn’s planned $10 billion electronics factory in Wisconsin turn into abandoned shadows and idled plants. Meanwhile, foreign leaders and companies offer token concessions with little genuine benefit to the U.S., while racing to evade tariffs by rerouting supply chains through neutral countries, brazenly and openly defying Trump while paying lip service to his whims. That is why 90% of CEOs polled at our Yale CEO Caucus said that Trump’s tariffs are backfiring on the U.S. These CEOs, like everyone else, are looking at ample data pointing to the widespread havoc wrought by Trump’s tariff tantrums. Not only have Trump’s botched tariff tantrums helped chop about $7 trillion in value off the stock market since his inauguration—enough to fund the government for an entire year—but the costs are being felt in the real economy. Far from bringing manufacturing and jobs back to the U.S., Trump is killing American manufacturing, hurting U.S. workers, and bringing the entire U.S. economy down with him. Inflation expectations have jumped to 32-year highs; consumer confidence has plunged 25% across both the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys as consumer spending falls the most in five years; NFIB Small Business confidence has plunged 50%; the labor market is deteriorating as the number of new layoffs quadrupled over the last three months; capital spending and investments have come to a standstill; and GDP growth forecasts have come down by 1%—a head-spinning reversal of economic fortune as the initial euphoria of Trump’s pledges of tax cuts and deregulation morphed into the Frankenstein monster of all tariffs, all the time. https://fortune.com/2025/03/31/trump-economy-tariffs/?abc123
From the same article. WHY is Trump engaging in this suicidal madness ? Of course, many business leaders wonder what motivates Trump’s destructive tariff tantrums. On one hand, Trump has obsessed over tariffs since at least the 1980s; and he has long, reductionistically viewed the U.S. balance of trade as if he were still running the Trump Organization, which tries to sell more than it buys every year. But the sheer, avoidable, intentional chaos of Trump’s tariff rollout, and his willingness to ignore significant stock market drawdowns, suggest there may be other explanatory factors. In Trump’s tantrums, psychoanalysts might find strong resemblance to what Sigmund Freud called the “death drive” pathology of entrepreneurs, or what psychiatrists term the self-destructive impulse—akin to a child on the beach who builds a beautiful castle and kicks it down. Forty-two years ago, Abraham Zaleznik, a psychoanalyst management scholar at the Harvard Business School, explained that many times, such entrepreneurial leaders as Trump and Musk are driven by an ultimately self-destructive megalomania, rooted in a bad relationship with a parent who disparaged them but is no longer around to be proven wrong. Zaleznik stated, “In their climb to the top, they have certain fantasies having to do with creating a new world. There is a search for restitution—to remake the world, remake their childhood, remake a relationship with a parent. They fall prey to the Midas theory. Everything they touch will turn to gold, and if it doesn’t they go bonkers. I think if we want to understand the entrepreneur we should look at the juvenile delinquent. I think there are a lot of similarities. They both have an under-developed super-ego. And so they don’t understand right from wrong.” https://fortune.com/2025/03/31/trump-economy-tariffs/?abc123 That really descibes Trump perfectly.
This is obvious... Not only are they backfiring but only the dumbest fools will think tarriffs will work They will not work....tariffs will destroy everything. I'm not even an economist and I know this.
Inflation expectations have jumped to 32-year highs; consumer confidence has plunged 25% across both the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys as consumer spending falls the most in five years; NFIB Small Business confidence has plunged 50%; the labor market is deteriorating as the number of new layoffs quadrupled over the last three months; capital spending and investments have come to a standstill; and GDP growth forecasts have come down by 1%—a head-spinning reversal of economic fortune as the initial euphoria of Trump’s pledges of tax cuts and deregulation morphed into the Frankenstein monster of all tariffs, all the time. https://fortune.com/2025/03/31/trump-economy-tariffs/?abc123 Just looked at that data a bit more closely. If you think that A: all this was completely unnecessary and B: the Polar Opposite of what was promised in the election it just completely, utterly and totally boggles the mind. Data Source: https://yale.app.box.com/s/6nkf2tcprwmm7t57imo4rnuzpiq1jm7d
With the increase in volatility, it's hard to argue the current administration isn't highly disruptive and causing a large increase in antacid sales lately. As with all administrations, what you hear and what you actually see, isn't the same. After adding what appears to be mixed messaging along with a willingness to make materially and meaningful changes(whether you approve or hate it) it can be confusing if one looks at each piece of the puzzle in isolation, however, when viewed from a distance and holistically, it appears to make much more sense. The starting point, and unfortunately what is fully list upon most is we're on, and have been on for many years (at least 30+)an unsustainable trajectory of budgetary and debt explosion that will destroy our future standard of living and economic standing. We're highly vulnerable to having others with different interests than ours and our adversaries exploiting this serious and unmistakable vulnerability. As we stand, absent incredible changes, the 3032 election single issue will be dominated by what happens with social security payments and recipients as we do not have the capacity along with the total debt and other obligations including Medicare and Medicaid to deliver what is expected and promised. This year, namely this summer, the US must refinance trillions of dollars of debt, while at the same time, much of the budget is relatively unnecessary, whether you want to depict it as waste, fraud, and or abuse, most of the public would rather redirect the unnecessary spending towards known and favorable allocations including social security, veterans benefits, and defense, among a few selective others. Due to the structure of our election system, the current administration doesn't have the luxury of what could probably be best described as slow and steady progress towards their goals. The reality is, the midterm elections will determine what the administration is able, or not able to accomplish in the second half of the four-year term. Therefore, incredible disruption at lightning speed is required in order for the public to experience results prior to the election. As far as the current disruption goes, we also know the public has an incredibly short memory, and simply won't care at midterms regarding the current economic and market volatility, as long as the general public is able to experience benefits, including positive feelings regarding job security, income, and an overall feeling of a higher standard of living. We know how short the Public memory is by a recent example. When the previous administration exited Afghanistan in what could be described as incredibly generous and forgiving, as a total on mitigated train wreck and circus, it was hardly an election issue at all, despite so many deaths, broken promises, and billions of dollars worth of military equipment being lost. When viewed from this lens, the public having a short memory, a midterm election coming up, massive refinancing required by the federal government, a desire to put in place better opportunities for American companies to do business abroad, and a sincere desire to change course from a trajectory of debt and future obligation Armageddon, it is not so challenging to see where the final destination is. Regarding inflation, the current administration has already shown its hand, that extreme high tariffs are not the end game, only a means to obtain the goal of increasing American opportunity abroad, as well as a revenue tool, that to various degrees, is funded by reduced earnings from non-US entities, making moderate tariffs incredibly appealing. When combined with favorable energy policies, the net net inflationary impact overall in relation to the standard of living for the general public is desirable when combined with lower taxes, because the increase in after tax income offsets relatively small to no increases in purchasing power. In order to best understand what future inflation numbers will most likely be, one only needs to focus on the price of oil and energy, because All goods and services are heavily, albeit to various degrees, directly and indirectly influenced by the cost of the energy input cost component, which flows into all goods and services. With oil prices currently near or below $60 a barrel, surveys and opinion with a focus on fears of inflation will quickly dissipate within months, as manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers competing for business fail to increase their prices, and likely are able to reduce prices as the cost of business activity is relatively lowered with a reduction in energy and taxation, two of the most significant cost components businesses face. Interestingly enough, when viewed as a monthly chart over the last 10 years, or longer, at least from this traders perspective, the S&p 500 was an overbought chart, largely fueled by previous inflation, and being short appeared to be the correct, and largely remains correct position. That said, from a short-term perspective, as I've tweeted on x several times lately, I've been a buyer, and long, despite my tendency to be a short seller, because it's been obvious at least to me, that once the negotiations regarding tariffs loses its headline status, the market would rebound greatly. Such as what has happened, leading to last week being my greatest gains in years. I've been a seller of volatility for approximately a month focusing on the tariff issue and the opportunity it presents to realize outsized gains from both call and put premium, mostly selling futures options contracts. I remain a seller of volatility. It's a failure to believe inflation is a fearful expectation given the price of oil and energy generally.