Forecast SPX re 2023 Year End

Guessing where markets will end up in a year is always difficult but let's put some guesses down. A fair number of traders are already talking a 30% down year I'm expecting a moderate up year with the TSX outperforming the SPX.

My forecast is SPX closes at 4220 ( up 10% ) and the TSX at 22097 ( up 14% ).

Bragging rights if the bears on here can not only call a correction/crash but determine if it sticks by year end.

 

My little finger tells me +5% for the SPX.

But any high vol will be welcome.

 

Why not try forecasting the move of the ES at 9:30? Can make more money if you do it day after day.

 

Longer term forecasts can help set a framework for effective trading with an eye on overall risk management. I use the SPX as a proxy on what broader markets may do short term and likely turns in broader markets. I haven't had US index exposure since 2019 except for maybe a dozen day trades the longest being a 3 day hold on AMZN. I might have been short QQQ for two days at one point.

From 2010-2019 I was a passive "investor" just swinging in and out of broader market exposure ( US or Cdn ) based on long term technicals. It worked well for me with minimal risk of capital. Built up a nice capital base with minimal time spent. What I took out of that is a long term chart on NA indexes is really useful.

 

-15% at year end (but the low for the year could be much lower )

Multi year bear markets happen on average about once every 20 to 25 years.

One is about due, and given how inflated the bubble was i think this current bear market will contain at least 2 down years.

 

I think the FED will crash the markets.

 

Here are the 2023 forecasts of the U.S. stock markets, based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith who said in the 1930s that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle, that is, each year tended to repeat the behavior corresponding to the annuality of the previous decade.
In other words, if you averaged all the years ending with 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), you would get a forecast for 2011. For 2012, one would make a similar average, using only 2002, 1992, 1982 and so on:

https://thepatternsite.com/JanForecast23.html








Of course, if the Market were to have such a trend, trading would definitely be easier.

 

Predictions aren't worth much, but I believe a recession may bring down earnings in 2023. My guess is SPX will trade near 2880 by EOY.

 

Averaging all the years how far back?

 

Larry Williams also uses the 10-year cycle for his forecasts, and in his book: The Right Stock at the Right Time, he wrote that Gaubis and Smith observed the repetition of this 10-year pattern already since the early 1900s, and their analysis had started in 1854.