https://www.marketscreener.com/quot...ew-clothes-McGeever-47404652/#google_vignette From above article; .... PLENTY COST, LITTLE BENEFIT Acemoglu's thoughts and findings were included in a June 25 note from Goldman Sachs "Gen AI: Too much spend, too little benefit?" that dissected the pros and cons of AI. Jim Covello, head of global equity research at the investment bank, is far more skeptical than his colleagues on the economics team. Covello reckons investment in expanding AI infrastructure - on data centers, utilities, and applications, among other things - will exceed $1 trillion in coming years. The crucial question, in Covello's view, is: what $1 trillion problem will AI solve? "Replacing low-wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I've witnessed in my thirty years of closely following the tech industry," he says. Comparisons with the early days of the internet are misplaced. Even in its infancy the internet was a low-cost technology solution that enabled e-commerce to replace costly existing structures - quite literally - such as brick-and-mortar buildings. ...
The Emperor's new clothes are the IN thing. Chatgpt 4.0 is good. Logistics firms are already using humanoid robots. The military is secretly developing a smart, cannot-be-jammed sky/sea/underwater killer drone squadron. Companies are using AIs to make complex out-of-the-world decisions. Soon footballs, chess ... will be played using AI bots. Who knows, it might even replace the World Cup .... And humans just focus on betting. Soon heart/kidney/liver/eye .... surgeons will be out of job. More AI investment, please.
The third AI winter is what we need to be worried about https://towardsdatascience.com/history-of-the-second-ai-winter-406f18789d45 This is a classic example of how we don't learn anything from history. Here is quote from a conference from 1984 after passing and recovering from the first AI winter: "This unease is due to the worry that perhaps expectations about AI are too high, and that this will eventually result in disaster. I think it is important that we take steps to make sure the AI winter doesn’t happen" Like all real bubbles, we have forgot the previous bubble. Instead, we are only able to compare this AI bubble to the dot com bubble. The dot com bubble though is a justification for the AI bubble because the bubble this time is in profitable as opposed to unprofitable companies. The justification also is that the dot com bubble was just a blip in an otherwise completely transforming technology. The market is pricing forward artificial super beings interacting in the real world when all we have is limited use next token prediction and a type of mirage reasoning that we infer in our own heads about the software. Even the emperor's new clothes is a poor metaphor because the emperor is not completely naked. The disaster of the third AI winter is hard to imagine right now but it will not be good.