what time does the fed announce tomorrow? isn't it 3:00PM EST? and does anyone adjust their trading for the the announcement. Like go flat until the announcement is over?
It may indeed come in two parts, too: 2pm to let you know the decision ("No surprise" and the *verbage* behind the reason ("Ah!") -- and then, 2:30pm, for the press conference, just to add fuel to the fire.
A lil birdie told me to use the "opening range" methodology. But use 14:00-14:15 to calculate the pivot, ((HH + LL)/2). https://tradingsim.com/blog/opening-range/
A lot of the positioning for FOMC happens right at the opening bell. Watch order flow and it's possible to have a good idea of which way price is likely to go.
Market looks heavy it's having easier traction gaps to the downside than upside. As if it's being propped up till FOMC. Bond market up 2 points.
NYSE TRIN is a "Whoa! Bearish!" 1.7.... Volume is light for 13:30hrs. Bid-ask spreads will start really stretching out now.
Quarter-point rise. "In light of recent data," No requirement/expectation for September ("September is off the table!") Balance Sheet reductions in coming months, dependent on data returning to the 2% inflation target path, and continued 4.0%-4.5% unemployment. Market closes 2455 -- 15pts up. Quarter-point rise "In light of recent data," September remains *possible*, Balance Sheet reductions in coming months, in a manner which raises/maintains the attractiveness of business investing by maintaining sound and fair long-term interest rate structures. ("All rates going higher!") Market falls to 2418, closes above 2425.
I'd be surprised if they didn't say this (or remain silent on the possibility). If they say otherwise and say a September hike is off the table, it would really back them into a corner and reduce any options available to them.