FOMC Minutes & Jackson Hole: What Traders Should Watch This week brings two events likely to move markets: the release of the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium. Both could shape expectations for US monetary policy into September and beyond. Why the FOMC Minutes Matter ? The minutes are not a new meeting but a record of July’s decision to hold rates steady. What stands out is that two members, Bowman and Waller, pushed for a 25 bps cut—a clear sign of division inside the committee. Markets have reacted sharply to recent data. Softer non-farm payrolls plus previous revisions and moderate CPI briefly pushed September rate-cut odds to about 95%. But a hotter-than-expected PPI release trimmed those expectations to roughly 83%. The swing shows how sensitive traders remain to incremental shifts in employment and inflation, the Fed’s dual mandate. Jackson Hole and Powell’s Tone Later this week, the Jackson Hole Symposium takes the spotlight. This year’s theme, “The Labor Market in Transition,” ensures that Powell’s remarks will be scrutinized for clues on policy direction. * A hawkish tone—signaling fewer or slower rate cuts—would likely strengthen the dollar and lift Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year, which is highly sensitive to Fed policy. * A dovish tone, emphasizing weakness in labor data and the need for cuts, could weigh on the dollar, pushing the index toward 96.0. * A neutral, data-dependent message would probably keep the dollar range-bound until the next major releases such as CPI or NFP. Bottom Line The Fed faces a difficult balancing act: inflation remains elevated while the labor market shows signs of cooling. This week’s FOMC minutes could highlight growing divisions within the committee, while Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will set the tone for the months ahead. Together, they are key catalysts for the dollar, Treasury yields, and broader market sentiment. Full Breakdown Below: