Very simple, today is most likely a non event if the market expects fed to raise 25bps, announce they pause but are open to raise further if future data suggest more inflationary pressure. Case closed. Funny how so many miss the truly impacting events. For example the real deal was the most recent BOJ speech by Ueda, his first in his newly appointed capacity as chairman. Moves in yen crosses even thwart the abysmal low vol in spx.
Ah but you are dismissing the possibility of the Fed doing nothing. The most recent CPI data for April has been quite tame with both CPI y/y, CPI m/m and core CPI below both previous months and consensus so given the situation in the banking industry, the Fed might consider giving a little break and leave the rate unchanged just for this once? After all the central bank of Canada, its closest neighbour country hasn't raised its interest rate for two times now.
You are welcome to play those small odds. 25bps are baked in, not just by the market but it would make Powell appear very weak and bending to markets if he stayed put. He worked very hard at making crystal clear that inflation is a threat and that they do anything to tame it. A single reading slightly softer is not gonna change this stance. Barring a huge market slide I put probabilities of any rate cut this year way way lower than what the market prices at the moment. I would be very surprised at anything but a 25bps hike and probably heavily short the US dollar because it would mean fed is convinced that it has a grip on inflation. Remember, they play the long game and short term adjustments have almost always badly bitten them in the butt.
See under Fed Change column - "Dovish Shocker" No Change. This should have been made into a poll using the 4 descriptions as choices. I say "On the screws" likely.
the question for you guys is do you have any skins in the game before the 2pm fomc meeting today? if yes, what u got? or u guys all talk?
What do you care what positions I or others have on? The talk and sharing of thoughts is what adds value, not your positions that may be true or not.
%% Mostly trend stuff that has profited this year; +some countertrend. NOT in SPY benchmark as of 11;08 CST but its up + near upper of Don channel nicely on weekly. I pay more attention to that+ related than 25bps
[ we are all traders here. if u got ideas about fomc...why don't you put that into a trade ideas...or this is more of entertainment chit chat like what you watch on cnbc?