Finding my way

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jdesey, Feb 19, 2022.

  1. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    fortunately I keep a detailed spreadsheet of all my trades. I spent last weekend looking at all my trades from 2021. What I found is the very best trading I did last year in over 800 trades was the short sells I did. These are my own trades and were far more successful that any alert service I used. I had a 68% win rate on my shorts and I used PUTs instead of actually shorting cause it limits my total loss.

    Now, here is the really strange part. In April I abandoned this strategy and moved on to others for the rest of the year. I am dumbfounded why. Possible answers is not trusting myself and thinking some guru knows better. Maybe thinking there were better results with other strategies, etc... Whatever it is I will not let it happen again.

    So, this week I was back to my short-fade strategy and doing well. My point is to keep records, review often, and do not system jump.
     
    cruisecontrol, Nobert, NoahA and 3 others like this.
  2. deaddog

    deaddog

    What are you trading?
    68% win rate sounds good. What is your annual return?
     
  3. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    annual return not so great. Reason is that I system jump too much. I am fully committed this year to stick to my short-fade strategy and focus. my average winner is 40% and losses are capped at 30%. Sometimes I do end up with a runaway winner like 80-100%. good luck, it works for me.
     
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    Thar's Gold In Them Thar Stats!! Good On Ya! Break a Leg.
     
    beginner66 likes this.
  5. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    thank you ... I am still confused as to why I abandoned the strategy with those stats. I guess it is the "grass is always greener elsewhere" kind of deal. no more system jumping. no more following alert services. they are no better than I am.
     
    easymon1 likes this.
  6. easymon1

    easymon1

    https://fs.blog/complexity-bias/

    Nothing wrong with looking around for more tools for the box but they gotta earn their keep.
    The fact that you have a system recordkeeping and stats puts you in the 20% circle right off the reel.
    Work your plan holmes.
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2022
    NoahA and Jdesey like this.
  7. KGTrader4

    KGTrader4

    It’s great that you identified what’s working.
    Speaking for myself, I know, that whether it’s trading ideas (which I’m new at) or anything else in life, I have a strong tendency to be distracted by the latest new shiny object. Sounds like maybe, just maybe , that’s what you dealt with last year. If so, then you know what to guard against to help you not allow it to happen again.
     
  8. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    well said...and yes I fell victim to the "new shiny thing" syndrom... no more. I just backtested trades that met my criteria that I did not take. Yes, this strategy works. Yes, I am sticking to it. It is a about time I focused on one setup and work it, no more system jumping.
     
    KGTrader4 and NoahA like this.
  9. KGTrader4

    KGTrader4

    What do you use to backtest?
     
  10. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    Good old fashion manual. Yes it takes time but it forces me to see the charts and the pattern in action. Pattern recognition is very important
     
    #10     Feb 20, 2022
    KGTrader4 likes this.