It's very clear that inflation has come way down in 12-18 months This is about as fast as inflation has ever fallen Inflation path isn't done but it makes me feel a lot better to see components decline, including housing The labor market has been cooling to a position of better balance So far this doesn't look like a recession in the labor market but there are warning lights We want to be stable at full employment If you saw a sharp of an uptick in unemployment, you would be justified to be agitated about the unemployment level. Thus far it doesn't look like that. Unemployment needs to steady I don't like to tie our hands on future meetings, we have plenty of data coming The more months of data that look like recent data, the closer you get to 2% The market is fully priced for a September cut and is priced for 64 bps in easing this year. https://www.forexlive.com/centralba...ltiple-months-of-improvement-in-cpi-20240718/
Isn't it interesting... one Fed guy says, "no interest rate cuts for the rest of the year". Another Fed guy says, "should be a rate cut next week". What's a trader to do?? Personally, I think it would be best overall for Fed to do a big rate HIKE... and drain the $9T "excess liquidity" sloshing around the monetary system. That's what the economy needs to quell inflation. Such medicine would be painful for some for a while, but better in the long run.