Fed reverse repo program negated the rest of their monetary policy

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ScroogeMcDuck, Nov 11, 2024.

  1. They started aggressively expanding RR in may 2021 which was fine. If they had actually started tightening at that time they could have averted a third of the inflation (the other 2/3 was fiscal helicopter money that they have no control over, plus a touch of pandemic/regulatory related constraints on the supply side). However at the same time as they were expanding RRP they were still aggressively buying treasuries until Mar 2022. Pick a lane! It makes no sense to keep buying treasuries when inflation is red-hot. The word "transitory" was used desperately to deflect criticism from Bidenomics.

    Then the rapid drawdown in RRP starting mid-2023 more than counteracted the asset runoff so that they were actively expanding the monetary base during red-hot inflation. Fucking retards, doing the exact opposite of their jobs, just to try to delay the landing until after the election. Only it backfired because people got mad about inflation more than they'd get mad about a few percent more unemployment.

    But I think this inflation is mostly over because despite an awful administration and an awful fed, the tailwind from AI enabled enough real gdp growth to catch up with the growth in M2. GDP growth per se is disinflationary but it usually leads expansion of the money supply and tightening of labor markets that more than counteracts its disinflationary effects. In this case M2 started expanding again in Nov 2023, but only slowly. So long as it continues to grow more slowly than nominal GDP I'm not worried about reacceleration of inflation.
     
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