Fair Value - Covi Lows

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Nobert, Nov 19, 2021.

  1. Nobert

    Nobert

    After few months and little research, this is what i found :

    (Only fundamentally strong names)

    Screenshot (18).png



    Note that value is based on the first quarter results of 2020.

    Same could be done with 2008 and 2000, or even years beyond, just to track the change in the amount of opportunities presented during each crash.

    Will see.

    Take care & don't overpay.
    (Or at least hedge)

    P.s

    4 names were bought out by competition (and overpaid by a factor of ~2) and 2 names went private (deal size unknown)
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
    qlai likes this.
  2. If @piezoe is right that banks got free loans to buy whatever they want, and they bought stocks, the valuation doesn't matter until they have to pay it back. They will not have to pay it back ever since rates will remain lower than the dividends they will be receiving on their loan.

    Ingenious way to make the rich, richer Powell!
     
    Nobert likes this.
  3. traider

    traider

    How do you determine overvaluation?
     
  4. Nobert

    Nobert

    If the price was 30% and beyond of the fair value.
    (note that 30% is my personal ,,guess")

    Even if it was in the range of 1% to 30% above the fair value, i still counted it as ,,Reached Fair Valuation'', because , overpay of 30%, might be the premium and assets of unknown
    (e.g brand name, future market share size etc. ; didn't went so deep in each case, all was based on the balance sheets only, none the less, TA used as well, for covi lows)

    Most of the price nowadays is 2x, 3x, 4x and dozens of times more than the true value, thus, the talks about market being overpriced, - is truth.

    On the other hand, if my guess about 30% range was wrong (say it's 90% or 100%(premium on average might be different in sectors too), then the real amount of opportunities presented might increase by the factor of 2.
    Also the data on sectors would become inaccurate.

    Anyway, one needs only a handful of good names, to kill it.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2021
  5. traider

    traider

    What metric to determine fair value?
    PE?
    growth?
    FCF?
     
  6. Nobert

    Nobert

    That's the kicker.

    Can't say anything beyond.