Expected inflation is 2.35%? Isn't that too low?

Discussion in 'Fixed Income' started by timothylee, Nov 13, 2022.

  1. wmwmw

    wmwmw

    • 5 year expected inflation is less than 2.39%
    • 4 year expected inflation is less than 2.42%
    • 3 year expected inflation is less than 2.48%
    • 2 year expected inflation is less than 2.60%
    • 1 year expected inflation is less than 2.90%

    Sources:
     
  2. M.W.

    M.W.

    Would love to see how they derive their figures. Those are a fraction of the true inflation we are currently seeing. One year inflation at 2.9% is a hilarious joke or blatantly ignorant.

    Nowhere are those numbers even remotely reflected in current forward swaps and swaptions levels.
     
    spy, TrAndy2022 and David's faith like this.
  3. wmwmw

    wmwmw


    Do you understand what is difference between current inflation and expected future inflation?
    You sound more ignorant.
     
  4. wmwmw

    wmwmw

    You should admit your mistake instead of posting another set of figures to prove you were not wrong.
    Current market expectation is high inflation is short lived and later next year fed will begin to cut rate because at that time both economy and inflation will go down dramatically.
    That is called yield curve inversion.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/26/business/yield-curve-inversion-recession.html
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2022
  5. HOGWASH, IMV!

    If there were no inflation, prices wouldn't continuously rise (thanks to currency debasement)... your money would hold its value and purchasing power. The $USD has lost between 95-99%, depending upon which/whose numbers you look at, of its value since the creation of the Fed.

    The primary (only?) reason for inflation at all is to provide cover for government deficit spending... but even THAT doesn't work these days as the politicians SPEND THEIR F'N BRAINS OUT!
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2022
    spy likes this.
  6. spy

    spy

    Yeah, total market over-reaction w.r.t. the CPI figures last week IMHO.
     
    M.W. likes this.
  7. ktm

    ktm

    The Fed typically shoots for 2%. A small amount of inflation is expected and healthy in a growing economy within developed countries.
     
  8. You think so? I just ran a calculation on my TI-BAII... calculates the average inflation rate since the creation of the Fed has been 4.1%... starting with USD in 1913 = $1, and today = $0.02. That's healthy?

    If my TI is wrong, somebody please correct.

    We've survived the First 100:1 devaluation of the $USD. Will we survive the second? (Bread will be $400. Gasoline, too. Chinese take-out won't be $50 like it is today... it will be $5,000!)
     
    #10     Nov 13, 2022