Unless there's a major like a France exit which is unlikely as they'll only get a referendum with Le penn I think the euro will stay range bound and it's at the lower end of the range on the EUR/USD so it's now a buy.
I saw this a few days ago.........considering it was written by the guy that introduced the Euro, it's pretty significant. ---- One of the prime architects of the euro was Otmar Issing. And it’s now Otmar Issing who tells us that the euro is simply not going to work. It would have been useful if he had told us this 20 years ago of course but there we are. And the reason that it won’t work is because people just will not make the changes necessary to make it work. That change being, but not limited to, there being one fiscal authority for the whole of the eurozone. And quite seriously, that just isn’t going to happen. There might be a few federasts around who dream that it will but no observer of the real world thinks it remotely possible that it will actually come to pass. Thus this: Otmar Issing on why the euro ‘house of cards’ is set to collapse Euro architect tells Chris Jeffery that muddling from one crisis to another cannot go on endlessly. Politicians need to admit “there is no likelihood” of political union to give EMU rules a chance In a little more detail: Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next one. It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly. Governments will pile up more debt – and then one day, the house of cards will collapse. The problem is one that many of us have been pointing to all along. As Milton Friedman did: The drive for the Euro has been motivated by politics not economics. The aim has been to link Germany and France so closely as to make a future European war impossible, and to set the stage for a federal United States of Europe. I believe that adoption of the Euro would have the opposite effect. It would exacerbate political tensions by converting divergent shocks that could have been readily accommodated by exchange rate changes into divisive political issues. Political unity can pave the way for monetary unity. Monetary unity imposed under unfavorable conditions will prove a barrier to the achievement of political unity. The essential problem is that we’ve got to have some method of economic management. If we can’t use interest rates and exchange rates to deal with asymmetric shocks then we’ve got to use fiscal policy instead. The eurozone has the one currency and thus the one monetary policy. Over such a diverse area this will only work if there is also a fiscal policy in place to compensate. It needs something like the US Federal Government, collecting and disbursing some 20% of GDP, to give us that room for fiscal policy. But the eurozone doesn’t have that. It’s long been known that some would like it to have such. It’s also long been known that the system will only work in the long term if it gains that. But Issing is pointing out that it won’t get it: Yet there is no chance of political union or the creation of an EU treasury in the forseeable future, which would in any case require a sweeping change to the German constitution – an impossible proposition in the current political climate. The European project must therefore function as a union of sovereign states, or fail. To make the euro work it is quite literally necessary (no, not desirable, or nice, but necessary) that German taxes pay Greek pensions. This is not something that is going to happen–therefore the euro isn’t going to work. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...rk-so-milton-friedman-was-right/#4d17651f6d22 And I saw something else this week about Greek needing another bailout...this would be their third.