The first "breakout" on the EUR/NZD was a fake, here is the real breakout, see chart below. (Just bought EUR/NZD at pullback line at 1.6145). The Forex dealers knew that a lot of people were watching that long channel, so I guess they had to eliminate the weak hands first. Very sneaky move indeed...
Fundamentals are stacked against this pair going higher. RBNZ whispering about hikes early next year, ECB talking about further stimulative measures. Then there's always that pesky (F)PIGS thing....
It's the mirror image of a move I've noticed frequently in the futures markets. A beautiful, classic consolidation forms (like a cup w/ handle). Market breaks out, then a short time later, reverses hard. Breakouts are shake outs...
Thank you for your comments Tsing Tao but quite frankly I don't give a hoot about fundamentals or rumors (no disrespect intended), I only listen to the charts and the charts only, they never lie, assuming one can decode their silent message.
Absolutely blah12345678, most breakouts are fake and amateurs love to chase them. Personally I never trade on a breakout until I see at least 10 candles completely above (or below for short positions) the breakout line. Then I need more confirmation before pulling the trigger. I know a few traders who make a living trading nothing but false breakouts.
+100 pip profits, now trailing the stop 25 pips above break-even. Good boy EUR/NZD, now go and bring me even more cash! Chart of the breakout so far: