Last trade: Sold 931 covered 892. Obviously, I'm still bearish. Maybe traders can sell the 949 area, same stop level. This is just basic support/resistance market profile, fib, pivot risk/reward swing trading. Note: The Dow never went under 8,000 on the last move down; therefore, the bear trap was likely only with S&P traders selling under 880. There is still that 1010 area of resistance above not tested since the election, so if I get stopped out maybe the S&P will head there.
This sure is an awful big wall of worry. I think we will take out some stops up here at very least on this leg, maybe get to 1060 eventually so GS can say they were trying to help us out with a freebee. I cant explain this market action but if we get over 1000 I may be in cash and puts as opposed to equity and puts as I am now (delta getting very long up here). Or maybe collar the shit out of my positions. I dunno, cant believe we are at these levels.
1) Are you risking "too much" in order to make "too much"? 2) When this current rally got above the July 1st highs, that would tend to signal a trend change. That same level may support the market on any decline, for now. We'll see. We may both be "right".
I am actually counting on the "trend change" for all the TA folks to announce "buy, buy!!". Then we get the trap. I could have waited for the trap to sell, but i've learned I need to do both a) sell before the "breakout" and then b) sell if i think there is a trap. I think this move higher is the "I'm sick of shorting up here and I will either buy a breakout or just wait for a real move". Then we get a real move lower and traders get frustrated for the billionth time, me included (I sold last time thinking that was the last time. lol). There is simply neither an event nor price action that would get me bullish. a fatal flaw? perhaps.
A "classic" FAKE-OUT, BREAK-OUT coming. Everyone short with buy stops around 960-970 will be taken out. THEN, and ONLY THEN, will the market go down. That, gentlemen, is the big poker hand being played right now.