Election year rally...

Looks like spy etc will be propped up till after the election anyway..interest rates flat probably going down...economy will thrive...jobs etc..right out of the playbook. We'll see what November brings...

 

I like what you're saying...but November?
That is a lifetime away...for day traders at least...

 

When there is a current president running to be re-elected then the returns of election years are higher.
https://advisor.morganstanley.com/t...up/S&P 500 in Presidential Election years.pdf
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

 

I always find it extremely intriguing that no matter what day year second month or decade there is literally an excuse in every single angle of the market to find a reason for the market to rally!

 

I think its garbage...it's manipulation.

 

If you take some little leverage and then increase on your position on every new high because you are in more gains, then it is like self-running stock index because of the extra liquidity. I mean, the liquidity of the SP500 Future is not large enough for this. Just imagine. If you buy 500 contracts on every tick, which is just ca. $100 million in full contracts Dollar worth, on a ca. $40 trillion market 0.1% increase of new highs means $40 billion more market cap, that would be 4.75 points right now. So every new tick would be then like $2 billion more market cap rounded. And there is no group of market participants buying 10000 contracts on every tick with new highs. Just imagine there is 1.1 leverage in the whole $40 trillion SP500 market. It means then 1000 contracts on every new higher tick on new highs would be or should be bought. So the bulls are or could be the driving forces behind themselves then. Imagine.

 

who are the sellers in your case if anything, the mm will eat you alive

 

idk, what do you mean here ? I wanted to show that with very little overall market leverage there is not enough liquidity for ES, SP500 Futures purchases, when on every new (Alltime-)high (per every new higher tick), 10000 contracts per tick could be bought (as group not for one market player). So the bulls could feed the bulls endlessly in that case.

 

market participants don't add or subtract liquidity. for a group of buyers, there will be a group of sellers, liquidity is always within cme accounts, credit/debit among the houses.

 

Futures do not exist independently of 2 parties. There's not some quantifiable supply of them out there for people to grab.