What do you think will work towards next week's moves up or down? More sellers than buyers or vice versa true, what else? Bearish: Election uncertainty Coronavirus spike Last week downtrend Bullish: Fed stimulus progress, vaccine What else?
Things look a bit different this time. Last time, it was fear with the lock down then greed with stimulus and virus numbers coming down. Right now we have numbers out of control and more and more euro countries locking down. The election provides volatility but not sure it will make much of a longer term trend. It's all about q4 earnings, debt hit, and stimulus. Vaccine progress seems unlikely right now
I have no personal respect for Trump but this option would be preferable for the US economy and make things simple for trading. My ideal draft plan calls for Monday and Tuesday to be inside bar days on the Dow. I then go long on the Dow derivative (spreadbetting) at Wednesday's close as long as it prints a higher high and higher low than Friday, a close above Friday's and which is in the day's upper one-third of range. Oh yes, the other thing I need (we all need) is a clear and uncontestable immediate result.
Interesting question. What will be contestable? Key states, overall vote too close to 50:50. What about 55:45
Dunno. Its just going to be a bad outcome for my plan if the apparent loser takes it to court and we don't get a vigorous V-shaped bounce.
Trump win: market plummets because COVID response Biden wins: market plummets because trillions more in debt and our entire country will be sold piecemeal to china. Long yuan short USD for biden win.
We're not going to have a v-shaped bounce, and never will, because people will not... 1. Wear their mask when going out in public. 2. Use hand sanitizer when they get back into their vehicle (if applicable) 3. Wash their hands with warm soapy water when they get home. 3A. (Resist rubbing their eyeballs when out in public.)