From my studio in Sao Paulo, Brazil my prediction: If the election were fair, then I'd win of course. However, I think Trump wins. The polling underestimated him in both 2016 and 2020. It's a myth that they underestimated Democrats in 2022. In fact, they overestimated them by just .8%. So the polls were extremely accurate. What happened in 2022 was the media hyped up this idea of a red wave that never happened and was never actually backed by the polls. So now why would I think that Harris has all these secret supporters? They captured the abortion support in 2022. Honestly, I think the enthusiasm behind her campaign is quite low if you turnoff MSNBC and go out into the real world. Trump still has his big fans and her fans are more anti-Trump than pro-Harris. I expect PA to be the deciding state as it was in 2020 (Trump lost by .63% in 2020 and GA/AZ by smaller margins). If he won those 3 states that would have put him over the top. I also expect a smaller gap between the EC deciding state margin and the popular vote than in the previous two elections. I say this, because Trump seems to be doing better in the large states like CA, NY, and FL. CA and NY won't flip. FL is already his. However, it will help him run up his popular vote totals while having no impact on the Electoral College. Polls start to close now so now, I'm on record.
More on PA, I think the highest quality polls in the state tend to show Trump up by +1 on average. He has done better there than in MI and WI which is why I think it will put him over the top as the deciding state. If he sweeps the Sunbelt (NV/AZ/GA/NC) that only gets him to 268-270, assuming Harris holds NE-2 and Trump holds ME-2.