All the economic data today plunged. Combined with weak data the past month and a pattern is developing. The economy is clearly weakening.
Economy has been softening for several months, but some-what concealed in various averages, due to high income 1 - 5% of population. This from CNN today: 39% of Americans worry they can’t pay the bills https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/23/business/inflation-cost-of-living-cnn-poll/index.html
With the Trump tariffs and restoration of the southern border, the domestic economy will be red-hot this time next year. Service and manufacturing workers will be in desperately short supply. The Fed may well end up cutting rates only to raise them again once wage inflation re-accelerates.
trump administration relaxes regulatory constraints on aggregate supply which will probably more than counteract any inflationary effect of the tariffs and tax cuts. Tax cuts for the rich are not even inflationary because the rich have a ridiculously low marginal propensity to consume; the money ends up being invested in capital which raises productivity and real output, which is deflationary.
The 3 dirty little lies, check is in the mail, I won't c... in your mouth and aren't all tax cuts self-funded.
I have serious doubt Trump will be able to influence the economy one way or the other from his prison cell at this time next year.
Be funny if he did, both right and left conspiranut wingies would flip out. Then Trump would immediately announce his candidacy for 2028.
All joking aside, we should all take very seriously the threat Trump still poses. Trump is destined to become a caged wild animal if he becomes convinced that Harris is likely to win. The polls may shift more and more against him, as the contrast between an incoherent, aging Donald Trump and an alert, energetic Kamala Harris becomes increasingly evident. Trump tried to overturn the previous election results, and the result was people died. Over 460 went to jail, with sentences up to 22 years. Trump's chances to remain out of jail would seem dependent on increasingly desperate appeals to a Supreme Court that will likely be less inclined to save him as his chances of regaining the White House dim. Last time around he tried violent insurrection. If when November approaches and electoral college predictions should happen to show an all but certain victory for Ms Harris, what will he do? I have no idea, but based on past performance we can say with absolute certainty he won't sit on his hands awaiting outcome of three Court cases, each threatening to put him behind bars. In the meantime, I hope the Secret Service will double up their protection of Ms Harris and her running mate.