Earnings Season Rules of Thumb article

Discussion in 'Options' started by Matt_ORATS, Aug 10, 2024.

  1. Matt_ORATS

    Matt_ORATS Sponsor

  2. traider

    traider

    Doesn't this just show market is very efficient and trading is useless
     
  3. Matt_ORATS

    Matt_ORATS Sponsor

    It shows that there are weeks and types of markets where the earnings trade does better on average than other times.
     
  4. traider

    traider

    Like how, after comms looks like no free lunch
     
  5. Matt_ORATS

    Matt_ORATS Sponsor

    The best takeaway is to avoid times of elevated market-wide volatility if you like going long earnings straddles.
     
  6. Have you looked at ways to hedge the the non-earnings part of the earnings straddles against declining market volatility? Vix puts, short index straddles?
     
    Matt_ORATS likes this.
  7. Matt_ORATS

    Matt_ORATS Sponsor

    No. The non-earnings part gets whacked after earnings and that swamps any market change.

    One of the processes that sets our calculation apart is that we backtested the distribution of earnings moves to create our best estimate of the remaining straddle value after earnings.