Markets are heading back to all time highs! Nasdaq 15% off all time highs, Japan the same. Consider such high inflation, war, Covid still in the background, major goods shortages around the world. What could possibly be taking us back to all time highs. I can not give you one reason why we would be having ONE up day, let alone nearly back at all time highs. My trader friend said it's a bear market bounce. This bear has bounced back into a bull imo.
Ikr... bears have spent the last 2 years calling the next crash and less than 2 months into the "I told you so", the freaking market is rebounding... That's no bear living! So, why not, let's call this a bear market bounce...
So, 15% down is nearly back at all time highs? You need to go down into a black hole, and never return from it.
There's a simple answer to your question, so write this down: Markets always move in the direction that takes the most amount of money from the most amount of people. Right now everyone and their brother agrees with your "how can this be?" sentiments.... Yep. So up we go. It's only when the real whales that you and I never hear of, its only when they get scared that the water actually seeks its level. Are they scared right now? I dunno. Things can change in a blink either way, and even the greatest of whales fail to possess that crystal ball... or maybe some do... but one thing's for sure... the world's economies I fear are sitting on the edge of a precipice of unfathomable heights. This great house of cards we all enjoy all fat, dumb, and happy in America.. is just that that. A great house of cards. The good news is, no one wants the game to end, especially the whales. That's what bothers me the most. Not because I want to see the party end, but because there exists a universal law of 'you don't get something for nothing', and the powers that be have defied this law for quite a long time now. Good for them, but when the chickens finally come home to roost, unfortunately we're all gonna suffer. So with that said... here's to the whales... lets all hope they can keep the game going.
The way that I see it...market had a chance to drop. Formed a double bottom (short-term). Inflation still running hot. Who wants to be in cash and lose 10% per year? How about treasuries? That's not working. What's left? Real estate. Equities. Not many good options. We're still in an everything bubble.
It won't take much for you to realize the trend is lower. After we enter into a wave of massive selling once again..... you will then forget real quickly why you even thought the bull was even back.....
From my early teens until around my early 40s I was a pessimist. I had many reasons to be, with a fair share of hardships to comfort my vision of the world and my life. Then one day I bumped into an optimist friend who suddenly came across to me as pessimistic and, in a very short time, I realized I had become an optimist. I was coming across many people whose world, business or personal outlooks were so unnecessarily bleak that I made it a goal not to relaps into that mindset. We're confronted with enormous compounding challenges that have left no one in the world untouched. War, hatred, diseases, climate change... wtf?!? It's hard to see why the US and other markets are holding up or why anything encouraging dares temper our gloom and doom. Ukraine is fighting valiantly, Putin's fascist Russia is falling apart and perhaps the West can help the country transition into something more democratic. China's regime may think twice about invading Taiwan. Covid deaths are finally down to such manageable levels that countries are opening up and travel is picking up. Reason seems to challenge emotions again. We can see an end to some of those terrible hardships. Yes, I'm confident we will overcome and build or rebuild better.