I’ve averaged a 42% CAGR over 17 years trading primarily U.S. equities. Over that time, I’ve relied on a handful of strategies—some worked for 6 years, others for 12, and one lasted the full 17 years. But my final long-standing strategy, which had been consistently profitable for 17 years, has recently stopped working. I suspect AI might be a factor, though I can’t say for certain. I’ve started to code to explore new approaches, but for the first time in 17 years I’m without active trading income. Fortunately, past results mean I’m financially secure for many years ahead. Has anyone else experienced reliable long standing strategies breaking down recently?
Macro here, and traded algorithmic strategies quite profitably for over 12 years. My strategies did not completely stopp(though degraded in performance over the past few post covid years) and I pulled out completely last December and am currently 100% in tbills. Even that I don't quite feel comfortable with in the current political climate. Am looking to purchase additional properties and add the rest to my diversified longterm investment portfolio. In over 30 years involved in the market I have never felt so uncertain and uncomfortable ever and I did well throughout the internet bubble, implosion, gfc, flash crash, negative crude settlement, and covid. Many things don't add up for me anymore. I feel corporations have lost all respect for their clients and have gone full tilt greed maximization, enabled by regulators who literally walked out of the room. I consider retiring. Studying the news cycles and deciphering the next shifts have lately been somewhat depressing. I have always promised myself that the day I wake up and don't feel excited about the market anymore is the day I leave things behind. I feel that is coming pretty soon
Suggest learning "Price TA". It doesn't stop working. It cannot stop working. Works in all markets and in all time frames. Bold thing to say, I understand. True nonetheless. (That doesn't mean a trader can't mess up, of course.)
That's impressive. if you started with 100k in 2008, you're at almost 38MM. You might be the most successful trader on here.
You’re embarrassing yourself here with 18,452 posts. I started out with more than $100,000 invested over three years, and the gross profits are nowhere near $38 million. Think it through. What can be the reason?
What do you mean by 'consistently profitable' Do you mean profitable every month, quarter or every year? And you say the average was 42%. Although for the last working system I guess it was probably less. But was the range? What was standard deviation/Sharpe?