Yesterday Nasdaq tech 100 index is very leading than Dow Jones and SP500. If yo guys have an idea about sectoral rotation, perhaps gains in tech index may be indication of markets are about to be bottomed out.. Possible of bottom could be due to drastic fall in commodities (most of em, other than crude). So this is reducing fed's job and already worseing economy could be waiting for a rate cut. Perhaps, markets (especially NDX 100) are factoring in that rates are going to be reduced or reversed sooner. [ The graph above shows the economic cycle in blue, the stock market cycle in orange and the best performing sectors at the top. The blue economic cycle corresponds to the business cycle shown above. The centerline marks the contraction/expansion threshold for the economy. Notice how the orange market cycle leads the business cycle. ] Just my opinion.
Bottom out? In a bear market there can always be rallies of up to ~20%... so of course "bottoming" before that. But for the bear market in general, my view is "October and SP @ 3000". That would be average size and duration for bears as recorded. I see that as "minimum". This bear could be much longer and much lower than that as "bear market psycho" has not reached acceptance yet in spite of the already decline. FWIW..
Trying to predict the bottom of a bear market in real time is a useless debate. Completely useless. Every ego on TV and on financial news sites....likes to talk about it like they are such prophets and expert traders. They are not.
I'm looking for Schiller pe mean which still has about 10 to go, and even those dumps go a little bit further than the mean. Fingers crossed anyway...
386 SPX is 20% from ATH, a 20% rally from where we are now would mean new all time highs or close.. OTOH it was never as easy as today to create FOMO... So yeah, possible.
If something declines 20% and then rallies 20% does it really make new highs? 100*0.8 = 80 80*1.2 = ?? Perhaps basic math is the reason why you keep losing in those nasty leveraged ETFs?