Dems Keep Hoping Their Midterm Chances Are Getting Better. Election Forecasters Say They’re Wrong. "Inflation has become such a dominant concern that neither a Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade nor January 6 hearings are likely to dramatically alter the midterms' trajectory," analyst David Wasserman wrote. Democrats were hoping the leaked draft of a Supreme Court decision that overturns Roe v. Wade would improve their dismal prospects in the midterms. Those Democrats are wrong, the election handicapper found. Wasserman changed the report's forecast in three congressional districts—Pennsylvania's 10th and 1st and Minnesota's 1st—to "Solid Republican." He shifted the forecast in Pennsylvania's seventh from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican." He also changed the races in Arizona's 4th district, California's 49th district, and Connecticut's 2nd and 5th districts from "Solid Democrat" or "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat." And he changed the forecast for the races in Nevada's first district and Oregon’s fifth district to "Toss Up." By contrast, Democratic prospects improved in just two districts, California's 40th and Illinois's 14th. The Cook Political Report expects Republicans to pick up "between 20 and 35 seats," Wasserman wrote, enough for the GOP to retake the House.
I don't see the Democratic chances improving for November. With the economy floundering, the stock market way down, Biden's low approval ratings, and the overhang of a war in Europe --- IMO things are not going to improve for Democrats between now and the election, even with a new Roe v. Wade decision pending in the Supreme Court.
Less Dems = more bribes for RINO's and pretend MAGA's. If the Supreme Court ignores election fraud = broken contract.
In 2018 Dems were up by 7 points in the polls and won by 8.Dems should be crushed in Nov but the abortion issue could be huge.
According to Predictit 2022 and betting sites, current Senate and House control odds are looking very unfavorable for the Democrats. However, Democrats are known for their "magic" and Republicans for their keen ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Personally, I'm hoping for a split Congress.
Predictit says otherwise, but what is really interesting is the large number of seats Republicans are expected to gain in 2022 in both the House and the Senate by numerous, professional bookmakers.
Predictit had Trump ahead of Biden multiple times.Aggregate polling never had Trump ahead of Biden. IIRC Predictit also said The GOP would keep The Senate in 2020