Decade of Big S&P 500 Gains Is Over, Goldman Strategists Say

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by gwb-trading, Oct 21, 2024.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    IMO every time big firm analysts claim the S&P 500 run is over... it seems to go on.

    Decade of Big S&P 500 Gains Is Over, Goldman Strategists Say
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-decade-big-gains-081931407.html

    (Bloomberg) -- US stocks are unlikely to sustain their above-average performance of the past decade as investors turn to other assets including bonds for better returns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said.

    The S&P 500 Index is expected to post an annualized nominal total return of just 3% over the next 10 years, according to an analysis by strategists including David Kostin. That compares with 13% in the last decade, and a long-term average of 11%.

    They also see a roughly 72% chance that the benchmark index will trail Treasury bonds, and a 33% likelihood they’ll lag inflation through 2034.

    “Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are toward the lower end of their typical performance distribution,” the team wrote in a note dated Oct. 18.

    US equities have rallied following the global financial crisis, first driven by near-zero interest rates and later by bets on resilient economic growth. The S&P 500 is on track to outperform the rest of the world in eight of the last 10 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Still, this year’s 23% bounce has been concentrated in a handful of the biggest technology stocks. The Goldman strategists said they expect returns to broaden out and the equal-weighted S&P 500 to outperform the market cap-weighted benchmark in the next decade.

    Even if the rally were to remain concentrated, the S&P 500 would post below-average returns of about 7%, they said.

    The latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey showed investors expect the US equity rally to extend into the final stretch of 2024. The strength of Corporate America’s results are seen as more crucial for the stock market’s performance than who wins the US presidential election or even the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
     
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  2. Bad for longterm investors,
    neglectable for traders.
     
    birdman and zerohedge like this.
  3. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    oh-sure-john-candy.gif
     
    TheDawn likes this.
  4. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    the market follows the value of the buying power of the dollar. they are inverse!

    the dollar is headed to zero - so wait what that means virtually even a hand full of dirt will be worth more than a dollar. so it's not what you're thinking i'm saying which is the market has no choice but to go up - cause anything you have your money in yes even dirt will be worth more than the wallpaper made out of dollars.
     
  5. Hello gwb-trading,

    LONG and STRONG the Vanguard SP 500 index for the REST of my life.

    THE EASIEST money I EVER MADE in my LIFE. Thank you JESUS. Let the good time roll baby.

    Nice trick Goldman Sach.
     
    MarkBrown likes this.
  6. LMFAO HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

    I better stock up on bullets and more AR-15, right @MarkBrown. Good idea.

    I know some good land where the deer is at too. Just holla at me. Bring the guns.
     
  7. mervyn

    mervyn

    diversification is back, bonds, commodities, emerging markets.
     
    zerohedge and SimpleMeLike like this.
  8. Hello mervyn,

    Long and Strong SP 500 Index.

    Diversification never worked and it never will.

    Diversification = Stay Poor People.
     
  9. S2007S

    S2007S



    How much more do you want to squeeze out of this market.


    I bought an index tech fund throughout 2024, it's up over 25%, I'm up 12% since I slowly bought in increments each month into October... do I actually believe this tech fund is going to keep going up like it has???
    Fu*k no


    A guy I spoke to literally yesterday who knows nothing about stocks literally took his entire portfolio and put it all into aggressive funds, he's up 60k he told me for 2024. He's 63 yrs old. I said that's an awesome return on your retirement, but damn that's a bit risky at 100% aggressive ...so this is the mentality of what people are doing in this market ....feeling it's never going to drop and just continue a complete vertical move in one straight line up. Might be for the foreseeable future but damn it's going to be nasty when you get that first big collapse that absolutely no one is expecting!!
     
  10. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    these people are so stupid cause just like their investments going strait up

    so is the cost of everything they will buy with that money and after they pay tax it's a net loss.

    you better be making double digit returns per month to out run this dollar collapse.
     
    #10     Oct 21, 2024