Introduction The cryptocurrency market has been a hub of innovation and speculation, with incredible highs and devastating lows. As we enter the anticipated crypto bull cycle of 2024–2025, it’s important to reflect on history—specifically the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s—to understand where we might be heading. Could a similar burst await the crypto market? Let’s explore. The Dot-Com Bubble: A Brief History The dot-com bubble, spanning the late 1990s and early 2000s, was fueled by the rapid adoption of the internet. Companies with “.com” in their names attracted massive investments, often without solid business plans. The Boom: Investors believed the internet was a revolutionary opportunity (and they were right, long-term). Speculation drove valuations of companies to astronomical levels, far beyond their actual revenue or profits. Companies like Pets.com became household names despite weak fundamentals. The Burst: By 2000, many dot-com companies failed to deliver on their promises. Investors realized that these companies were overvalued and began pulling out. The NASDAQ Composite Index, heavily loaded with tech stocks, fell by nearly 80% from its peak. Key Lesson: The crash didn’t signify the end of the internet—it highlighted the dangers of speculation and the importance of real value. Crypto in 2024–2025: A Similar Bubble? The cryptocurrency market has drawn parallels to the dot-com bubble since its inception. While blockchain technology and certain crypto projects have transformative potential, many altcoins are heavily speculative. The Bull Cycle of 2024: Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events have triggered bull cycles, pulling altcoins into massive rallies. As retail investors re-enter the market, we’re likely to see another round of fear of missing out (FOMO). The Problem with Overhyped Altcoins: Many altcoins reached all-time highs during the 2021 bull run, driven not by intrinsic value but by hype and speculation. Projects with weak fundamentals were priced far beyond their actual worth. For instance, meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu skyrocketed purely on social media hype rather than real-world utility. Why Many Altcoins May Not Break Their 2021 Highs Just as the dot-com bubble burst and brought valuations down to earth, the same may happen to altcoins during or after the next bull cycle. Unsustainable Valuations: Many altcoins reached absurd valuations during the last bull run. These prices often represented inflated, speculative bubbles rather than the coin’s actual utility or adoption. Market Maturity: As the market matures, investors may focus more on utility and real-world adoption, leaving overhyped coins behind. Only projects with strong fundamentals and clear use cases are likely to survive. Post-Bull Market Declines: After every bull cycle, the crypto market experiences a severe correction. During this period, the true value of many altcoins will be exposed—often far lower than their previous highs. What This Means for Traders and Investors Avoid the Hype: As we approach the bull cycle, resist the urge to chase overhyped altcoins. Focus on projects with strong fundamentals, real-world use cases, and long-term growth potential. Expect Corrections: The 2024–2025 bull run could push prices to new highs, but a correction is inevitable. Understand that inflated valuations may not be sustainable. Learn from History: The dot-com bubble didn’t kill the internet—it killed the hype surrounding unworthy projects. Similarly, blockchain and crypto aren’t going away, but not every altcoin will survive. Conclusion The crypto market of 2024–2025 will likely see exuberant highs and sobering lows. While Bitcoin and a select few altcoins may thrive, most projects are likely to struggle to reclaim their previous highs. History has shown us that bubbles inevitably burst, and only those with real value withstand the test of time. As traders and investors, let’s learn from the past, focus on quality, and navigate the upcoming cycle with caution and strategy. Call to Action What’s your take on the 2024–2025 crypto bull cycle? Do you think most altcoins will survive, or are we heading for another major correction? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
As long as the AI bubble keeps dodging the pin, Crypto will be ok barring a minsky-moment due to Tether. The problem with the AI bubble, is the cracks have already started, and now the fissures are splintering. Look at the early AI darlings with first-mover advantage to capitalize off the promise of AI, like SMCI. It's now held by only bag-holders, and has collapsed so fast and rapid that they just got kicked out of the DOW. None of the others can make a profit either, aside from the only one who is the one selling the picks & shovels (Nvidia). It is Nvidia that's been holding up the indexes alone, and now we're at almost at unprecedented over-valuations (Shiller ratio very close to dot.com). Once the orders for the Blackwell 100s & 200s slows... the air will go out faster than it went in. So... buckle up! Interesting note: AI companies are not making free cashflow, but analysts are using a new methodology now for calculating 'simulated' earnings... great. Didn't we just do that during the .dot-com era with a new method of projecting future earnings by 'clicks'? Same shit-show... same market. Buckle up!
Crapto is either one of two things, a bubble so huge that tulip mainta is not even a spec compared to crapto or crapto is the biggest thing since the invention of farming. There will be no in-between.
Yeah that's essentially my perception of it as well. I don't have the timing for it obviously but I would more surprised than not if 2025 isn't the year. The market regimen is frothy like fuck atm and I see ads for derivatives on Dogecoin in respectable places.
BTC is just a leveraged play on the investment cycle. As long as the NASDAQ charts are in tact it will keep going higher. No coincidence that November 2021 was the peak for both the QQQ & BTC. Like Megacap tech, BTC rises when growth slows down since that will force the Fed to lower rates and flood the market with liquidity. Its the same playbook from 1997 that Greenspan used to bail out LTCM. The Fed lowering rates this week will probably be a sell the news event.
I fully disagree. Once the general population realizes that the government has no plan to control the debt and spending, then it will be a race to save whatever purchasing power you still have. Bitcoin will continue to reach more and more people until its becomes the agreed upon global store of value that doubles an easy way to also transact with it as well. There will come a moment where nothing that the Fed does or doesn't do will affect the mass march into Bitcoin.
Got it. BTC & the market seem to move in sync. Do you believe that Fed's move this week will actually shake things up or will remain more of same?
What about Elon Musk and DOGE? The mission is exactly that; control the spending and put debt under control.
Have you actually looked at the rolling correlation between Bitcoin and QQQ? Its been essentially 0 for the last 2 years Don’t let facts get in the way of a narrow minded mental model tho