Crude Oil : 2023 -kPwn

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kpwn, Sep 30, 2023.

  1. kpwn

    kpwn

    Friday September 29, 2023

    Crude Oil - 2023

    CLX23


    NEAR TERM:: NEUTRAL / SLIGHTLY BEARISH

    [​IMG]

    VOLUME STRUCTURE
    So far, for the year of 2023, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $95 & $89, with the highest volume around $91, which is the price of neutrality and market balance.

    PRICE ACTION
    WTI strongly rejected prices above $92, and sold hard after reaching the current 2023 high of $95.

    This week ended with WTI settling right near its highest volume price around $91, the price of neutrality and market balance.

    OPEN INTEREST
    Open Interest (OI) has decreased for the first time since July, reducing the net-quantity of open contracts by about 32,000 contracts.

    COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT)
    This week's commitments by large institutional speculative traders will not be published by the CFTC until next week on Friday. However, I will be watching for any reduction in long positions from 442.288k and increase in short positions from 113.862k by institutional speculators.

    SOME FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
    - Seasonal Demand Destruction (Winter)
    - China economy showing weakness
    - Global economy showing weakness
    - Less travel demand
    - High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market
    - Continued USD strength / Expensive Petrodollar
    - FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, supporting a strong USD.
    - OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5

    IDEA::
    >>> Strangle or Straddle $91 as of Friday September 29, 2023

    I WILL BE UPDATING THIS NEAR-TERM NEUTRAL/BEARISH OUTLOOK ONCE PRICE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS HIGHEST VOLUME PRICE AROUND $91, THE PRICE OF NEUTRALITY AND MARKET BALANCE.

    - kPwn
     
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    "- High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market"

    HU Futs closed Friday approx $0.23 off contract high?
     
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    There are probably a hundred threads about crude oil.

    It is rare to see members enjoy seeing multiple duplicate threads
    unless the new thread is of high value.

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    Last edited: Sep 30, 2023
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Correction: approx $0.33, not $0.23
     
  5. kpwn

    kpwn

    Boom. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qBPR1rrJ/



     
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader