"Hoeppe predicts this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which began last week, will be worse than usual, with insured damages surpassing the $20 billion average of the last seven years and far exceeding last year's $250 million. His models show a high probability that at least one storm will hit land and cause major insured losses." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBfwZ45W3YgU&refer=home
Those warnings have been out for months and have been partially to blame for natural gas prices staying up above 7.25 since the hurricane predictions surfaced in late March. It's more or less a crap shoot if we do get a production threatening storm in the gulf, but assuming the weather men are correct, you'd be better off being long natural gas than crude.