Whether it'll go up or down is anyone's guess. But for now, all I see are lower highs and lower lows in the timeframe that you presented. How is this bullish? As for the so-called indicator divergences, what about the arguably negative divergences on the way up? Just sayin'.
Good points, but the most interesting part of watching $WTIC here is that everything the FED has done this year (raising interest rates) is designed to kill the inflation monster. It's called "Demand destruction." So ... after FED tightening, what if Crude Oil still wants to go higher. What can the FED do about that? Or will the FED just have a quiet WTF moment.
Crude oil is artificially low due to Joe Biden releasing hundreds of millions of barrels of oil from the US strategic oil reserves to sell to Europe. Russia has already said, it plans to cut oil production like 8%. That should drive oil prices higher due to the limited supply of oil in the oil market. That is in retaliation for the oil price caps. China and India probably, will keep most of its oil purchases from here on in, leaving little supply left for Europe and the US to chase after. I am sure OPEC will sell their oil at full market prices to the US and Europe if there are any left.
Everything bad that could happen to crude happened since May. So you had JPM talking about 'stratospheric' $400 crude when it was at around $110 and we instead got Citi's (then out of consensus) $70 call playing out. The reasons JPM talked about $400 and almost everyone else were bullish as well are still there (I'm not obsessed about that call which is probably way too high now, it's just an example on why this topic is worthwhile investigating).