Anyone remember Cramer's infamous "Winners of the New World" portfolio he published at the peak of the internet bubble in 2000? http://www.thestreet.com/story/891820/1/the-winners-of-the-new-world.html Those hyper inflated momentum darlings crashed and burned in spectacular fashion. Well it looks like Cramer is back for another shot and he obviously isn't gun shy from his last go around with hyper momentum, obscene PE stocks which have already doubled, tripled, or more in the last year alone. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101441488
Back in February 2000 everybody was VERY BULLISH, not just Cramer. Nobody predicted what would happen after March 2000, it was a black swan event. I like these picks of his from this year: AMZN GOOG FB NFLX PCLN TSLA TWTR CMG
Almost everybody is bullish this time around. It is no different. They have been screaming pent up demand last couple of years. Anyone that sold their home la dsy t year made out.
The models you say.... sounds interesting What if it gaps up to oblivion.... (has before)... OR... never gets to $71.71 - either is possible But..., as with all things - time will certainly tell eta; forgot to ask - what's your model's stop and target.... RN
I would think that generally people, not including red necks, would view 71.71 as a price that could represent, for the purpose of anticipatory estimation, any price in the range of 71.71-X to 71.71+X , where is X a small enough number such as X=0.70.
I think there is a huge difference from early 2000 to now. Back then technology as we know it today was very new, the internet was only a few years old. There was no benchmark to gauge the value of all these new tech companies back in 2000. The QQQ's and Nasdaq are now getting close to their all time highs, but the market has 14 extra years of "tech experience". I think 2014 is the year that Nasdaq hits an all time high.
I feel sorry for anyone buying into the momentum stocks @ these levels and trying to overcome their Fear of Missing Out. Cramer et,al recommendations and pontifications aside, they're late to the game and likely will be disappointed when the tides turn. We're in year 5 of an insane, if not illusory, FOMC-provided "bull" market. Plus many folks and MSM pundits forget that sky-high stock markets do not necessarily reflect a healthy national economy. The "all time high" phrase is mentioned constantly on CNBC[1] and, sadly, Nightly Business Report on PBS (which CNBC now produces, unfortunately). Which is kind of pointless ---- if the trend is higher, higher, higher into "all-time high" territory, at what point do you sound like an idiot cheerleader for saying that? Oh, right. CNBC. Nevermind. [1] from what I can tell from skimming their website now and then. I gave up watching the network ages ago.
This is what happens at the top of a mkt. Boom and zoom mentality will backfire just like gloom and doom. Mkts are 90% psychologically driven