I saw this and found to be an excellent analogy understanding the virus' death rate: "Give it another 2 weeks. That's how long for cases to deteriorate. Then a massive spike as health care infrastructure gets overloaded. 1.000 cases for 1.000 ventilators: 5 dead 1.200 cases for 1.000 ventilators: 210 dead, congrats, mortality rate just skyrocketed. Tl;DR for the autist: Corona death rate is like options: the moment they hit 'in the money', they skyrocket."
There are several situations under different circumstances the virus can affect. The virus, as you obviously know, has struck the airline industry, the shipping industry, and mainly the U.S. economy. I'm (personally) waiting for any sign of strength to buy deep ITM calls for all of the. You would be mainly looking for health care providers, medical hospitals and Pharma companies.
And unfortunately Trump acted like a tastytrader selling naked calls (but acted like they were covered), telling us everything was under control, CDC had us covered.
That's what I've been saying for 2months, 20-30% need a ventilator, if not available for you then you die, simple logic and math sadly. This thing is a bigger deal than there making out, imagine 10Mil have it, 2Mil need ventilator, there are only 1000 do the math Handle this wrong and 1Bil people might die this year from it.
For the next 10days, it's the infections from before the lockdown being caught, should get a massive reduce after that, which is better than nothing/never. UK Lockdown maybe today, no gym, no lycra, no cinema, no swimming, but can focus on trading atleast
Came across this article that might add value to this conversation. Here is the summary: Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources: How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area? What will happen when these cases materialize? What should you do? When? When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away: The coronavirus is coming to you. It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly. It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two. When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways. Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die. They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies. The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today. That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now. As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this. You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much? But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision. Ok, let’s do this.