Hi, I have a question about counting the correct number of bases. A method used by O'Neill and Minervini. In their books they count the bases by using a weekly chart. However, these weekly charts they use are charts with a timeframe of two or three years. I am studying a chart at the moment of FCEL and have some doubts about applying this method correctly. This because when a stock is just trending for six months counting bases is not always easy. In that case on the daily chart for example one can see three clear bases. But when you switch to the weekly chart you will see one clear base. Normally I would say stick to the weekly chart, however on the internet some people use the daily chart to count. So my question what is the correct way?
%% IBD founder uses both weekly+ daily. Counting bases never helped me that much/but i use weekly more than daily + use both. ALSO IBD founder traded agressive thats fine /but he had a NYSE seat+ was super good. Come to find out he used super small av daily volume sometimes ; i would not make a major case for that also/ but do some of that.........................................................WOULD he buy that FCEL with a making a high $666\dont know ,no way i would@17 0r$ 18
Hey. Oneil would also mention : ,, A leader in it's industry..." ,, Introducing a product that raises peoples's life quality..." ,, Institutional support..." Etc. How many of those does it match. I wonder.
Here is my own take on FCEL. I don't see any other bases that are well formed continuation patterns typically 4-26 weeks.
And those arent real bases.They appear to be when looking back from the hard right edge,hence visually compressing prior price action..Take a close look,some of those bases/consolidations had price range of 100 percent plus,with 21 day Historical vol well over 100 percent,at times 200 percent.....That aint no base,its a mirage utilising hindsight analysis
I start to count when the 40 MA on the weekly starts to climb. So I wouldn't count the bases you have included in your chart. As to FCEL, it is not a stock which Minervini or O'Neill would buy, but that was not my point. My point is that if you use the weekly charts of FCEL one counts one base, while the daily charts shows three bases. That is a big difference. If O'Neill uses the weekly and the daily chart to count bases I don't think so . I have his book, but I see only weekly charts. So, I guess he just uses weekly charts to count.
%% I just did a speed read of one of his books, early today; about 80-95% of his charts=weekly with months marked. True/ he would not buy an 52 eps; but the stock market is like RE/one REALTOR said ''people buy anything''............................................His 200 dma helps more than any subjective base count + its a buy on that stock. His 40% gain on that/ YTD is a buy also....... NOT a stock tip, not a prediction.