I used a simple multivariable regression, and matched all WASDE variables against following month average corn futures front month price, and added month of year as seasonality factor. It spat out $6.1~ for the Dec. contract to average in Oct. Stats, graphs, are available here. Attached is a chart of the historical front month price vs. model fit. And that feels very wrong to me, with other data I have, it just doesn't feel like corn prices are going any where in the next month or 2. What do you guys think regarding corn prices, or why the math is likely wrong this time?
i can't speak to your modelling but i think corn has been gotten beat a little to hard lately...i live in corn country and growing conditions haven't changed materially after the heavy july rains. i'd be interested to see how much px movement has had to do with supplier flows (big producers laying off hedges or using the futures to price-lock during the big run up into the 7xx's)
Yeah, I got average Managed Money Long exposure of the past couple of weeks at about 557.4~ Obviously it's still easier to squeeze them than the shorts this moment, this was 1 of the reasons I thought the WASDE fit was off.