Computing a rough HV estimate from limited data

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by earth_imperator, Nov 5, 2022.

  1. A question for mathematicians / statisticians / quants / TAs:

    Say you have only the following data of a stock (just this single daily data).
    It lacks the annual historical volatility (HV) data, ie. the StdDev.

    Is it possible to roughly estimate a HV for this stock using the data below?

    Would it be helpful having such data of max 5 consecutive days?

    Code:
    "quote": {
      "fiftyTwoWeekLowChange": 6.9799995,
      "fiftyTwoWeekLowChangePercent": 0.1279091,
      "fiftyTwoWeekRange": "54.57 - 164.46",
      "fiftyTwoWeekHighChange": -102.91,
      "fiftyTwoWeekHighChangePercent": -0.6257449,
      "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 54.57,
      "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 164.46,
    
      "fiftyDayAverage": 75.2422,
      "fiftyDayAverageChange": -13.6922035,
      "fiftyDayAverageChangePercent": -0.18197505,
    
      "twoHundredDayAverage": 95.26105,
      "twoHundredDayAverageChange": -33.71105,
      "twoHundredDayAverageChangePercent": -0.35388073,
    
      "regularMarketChangePercent": 4.855193,
      "regularMarketPrice": 61.55,
      "regularMarketChange": 2.8499985,
      "regularMarketDayHigh": 61.88,
      "regularMarketDayRange": "58.69 - 61.88",
      "regularMarketDayLow": 58.69,
      "regularMarketPreviousClose": 58.7,
      "regularMarketOpen": 58.765,
    
    },
    
     
  2. Yes under certain assumptions you can derive a ratio between the N day range and the N day standard deviation, closed form mathematically or with simulated data. Or measure it for similar instruments where you have this data.

    Having multiple days won't help very much.

    Obviously with a long enough history of daily returns you can calculate the standard deviation directly.

    GAT
     
    earth_imperator likes this.
  3. Thanks! Appreciate it, it's encouraging to research it further.