Commodity Prices

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by mikeriley, Jul 16, 2023.

  1. mikeriley

    mikeriley

    Is there an inverse relationship between
    commodity prices and the US dollar?

    I don't see it in the charts posted below.

    Help me to understand.

    Thanks in advance.

    dollar index.png

    wheat.png
     
  2. mikeriley

    mikeriley

    MACD likes this.
  3. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    Everything is priced in dollars. The value has to go somewhere. Now check it against every other commodity, stocks, currency, crypto, etc.
     
  4. mikeriley

    mikeriley

    In the past there's always been an inverse relationship between
    the Dollar and Commodities. Recently, especially since covid
    things have changed. The paper I suggested is a good read
    on why this is happening.
     
  5. The rule of thumb (I think) used to be

    1) that countries that export natural resources will benefit from rising inflation.
    2) but countries with large debt service (e.g. $31 trillion U.S.) are at least equally handicapped by the size of the debt service (as the inflation increases).

    It used to be a simple paradox: countries that were fiscally prudent would stand aside, watch the countries that were imprudent implode.

    But now fiscal imprudence is all the rage.
    Seems most countries are in a race to the bottom (of indebtedness).
    And the winners of such a race are likely to be
    1) commodity exporters (U.S., Russia, OPEC countries)
    2) Authoritarians (Russia, China and U.S. a distant third place).

    Most commodities have very long recovery cycles, so much complexity here.
    But for sure WWII ended when one side had ALL THE FOOD AND ENERGY, and the other side had none.
    FED can print dollars, but can't print any food or oil.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2023
    mikeriley likes this.
  6. Anecdotally, WWII in Europe unofficially ended on D-Day.
    German officers and troops were shocked that the Allies brought only a Mechanized Army.
    No Horses were on the landing beaches.
    The Germans knew that morning that all was lost.
    This precipitated the attempted Staufenberg assassination of Hitler (of which Erwin Rommel was a part)
     
  7. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    What are the summary cliff notes from the paper on why this is happening?

    There was no Bitcoin or crypto in the past either. Bitcoin has a half trillion dollar market cap. Companies with a trillion dollar market cap is also a relatively new phenomena.

    The difference from the lost value of the dollar is going to be made up somewhere else. Thats just how it works.
     
  8. mikeriley

    mikeriley

    Question has absolutely no bearing on Crypto, but referring to
    Commodities and their past inverse relationship with the Dollar.

    I have no idea why you're referring to Bitcoin.

    It takes less than 5 minutes to read the paper,
    which itself is but a cliff note. o_O

    If you're too lazy to read it, you'll probably
    continue adding material that's irrelevant
    to the discussion.
     
  9. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    Bitcoin is classified as a commodity.

    So if the article only mentions oil vs the dollar and not Bitcoin then it's not very throrough.
     
  10. If bitcoin is a commodity, what do you do with it?
    Commodities have historical uses.
    So what doe people do with bicoin?
     
    #10     Jul 16, 2023