A fun and historical read this week... "The size of cattle offerings is surprising some who expected large buildups of feedlot numbers from slow slaughter rates. The offerings will be somewhat slowed because of the poor basis level of cash to futures. Hedged feeders will be hesitant to sell with a premium April board and unhedged feeders will want the higher price promised by the April board. A more likely explanation is poor data collection of placement numbers last fall by USDA. The sad aspect of the Texas wildfires is the cleanup. Homes, fences, and dead cattle will be inventoried and rebuilding will begin. Cattle losses have been reported all over the board with most estimates only guesses and the true number will be weeks away. Many missing cattle will be found as fenced areas were opened and cattle drifted miles away..." THE TEXAS PANHANDLE The devastation from the wildfires during the recent weather events has focused national and international attention on the Texas Panhandle and emphasized the importance of the area to the cattle industry. With 12 million cattle, it is the largest concentration of cattle in the nation and probably the world. It is said that within 250 miles of Amarillo, two thirds of all the nation’s beef is produced. The story of the Texas Panhandle began in the 1870s when Mexican pastores or sheepherders traveled down the Canadian River from New Mexico. They established small villages called plazas where family groups would tend their flocks of sheep and endure the harsh winters and hot summers to live and thrive. It wasn’t long before pioneer Anglos like Charles Goodnight and George Littlefield found the value of the strong grasses and began to establish cattle grazing operations in the Panhandle. By the late 1800s it was obvious the land needed surveys and fences and that meant capital. Few of the individuals had the capital so outsider English land companies entered the picture furnishing the capital to purchase the land and fund the development of fencing and windmills that served as infrastructure for a booming livestock industry. The Prairie Land and Cattle Company, a Scottish land company, occupied 250,000 acres of the central Texas Panhandle while they were soon overwhelmed when Texas awarded 3 million acres of the western Panhandle to the XIT syndicate to build a new State capitol in Austin. Other outside investors, both domestic and foreign, wanted part of the west and furnished the capital to start many of the ranches existing in the Panhandle today. Their interest was fueled and popularized in the east coast media. The large newspapers sent professional photographers to the Panhandle to chronical the personal stories of people like Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid who frequented Tascosa, the popular town on the Canadian River and the R&R destination for hard working cowboys who were looking for love and adventure. Those stories were often about gunfights, whoreing, and killings that increased interest from outsiders to the area. It soon became obvious that absentee ownership of the land was not a viable option. Rustlers stole many of their cattle — often in cahoots with cowboys working on the ranches. The English land companies who understood little of the vagaries of the area would overstock the land thinking adding more cattle each year was a recipe for multiplying the profits. Multi-year droughts soon caused them to liquidate the herds at distressed prices and this brought an opportunity for local entrepreneurs to make the purchases of land that would form the base for many of today’s ranches. The Ogallala aquifer opened a new chapter in the development of the Panhandle and irrigation farms soon complemented the rangelands. This provided the perfect combination in the mid 1900s for the development of a commercial cattle feeding industry. The ready supply of cattle and grain brought the beef plants to the area and set the stage for the current configuration that today features an ideal synergy for beef production. The Panhandle beef industry today still finds its strength in the foundation of ranches and farms feeding the constant demand for cattle into the system. The wildfires may have damaged the foundation, but it has not destroyed it. The land and its occupants are resilient and will re-emerge to serve the prominent role of a food supplier of the nation’s preferred protein."
Made it to the King Ranch once ("bigger than Rhode Island"), well actually Kingsville the very small city there nowadays. Trip retrieving an RV that Texas police found large quantities of drugs in (don't ask), then fly and drive road trip on my part to retrieve RV back to Florida, with a stop in Biloxi, MS on way to gamble a little. Everything ... but barbecued beef. Dang I love that stuff.
Here's this week's report. I don't think it explains the whole story... ---------------- "SUPPLY STATUS AT THE FEEDLOTS Assessing the status of fed supplies is never an easy task and this year has surprised many observers and market participants with the resiliency of the market at a time when the high placement numbers from last fall should be heading to market. The processors, struggling for a margin at the beef plants, have pared back the slaughter hoping to stimulate demand and back up feedlot supplies. This strategy thus far has been unsuccessful and has left many wondering why.. Some clarity is now becoming apparent and like most complex problems, the answer can be found at the margins, where small changes in operations can impact the leverage that exists between cattle owners and processors. The big four packers control over 80% of the market but that leaves 20% for the independents. Small actions by those independents can influence the market and tip the leverage between buyers and sellers. Many of the independent beef slaughter plants are flex plants able to slaughter both cows and fed cattle. These operations manage the slaughter by seasonal changes and adjustments depending on the availability of killer cows. It is no secret that the beef cow herd is declining, and the beef cow slaughter has been in decline all this year. Now the beef cow numbers are joined by a decline in dairy cattle leaving the plants little option but to switch to the always available fed cattle market for kill slots. This phenomenon is obvious looking at the graph of prices for the 90% lean beef that has jumped this year. More of the end meats will go into the grind to service the ground beef market and beef imports will shoot upwards. This pressure from the independents keeps the big 4 packers from backing up prices on fed cattle offerings as both struggle with margins and compete for available fed supplies." ---------------------------------------- No mention of the wildfires impacting fed prices yet. That is odd. That should be showing up in the fall, if not before. Regarding LE, it should be showing up in next month's numbers. Hmmm!
I haven't touched cattle futures for eons but this one definitely looks ripe to be thrown in the BBQ pit.