Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Aug 27, 2022.

  1. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    What do you think? More importantly, how will you trade it?

    If bullish I'm trading China YINN KWEB and solar RUN long.

    If bearish, SQQQ SOXS UVXY

    I went long 20k+ inverses into the weekend. :D
     
    easymon1 likes this.
  2. tomkat22

    tomkat22

    Imma let the market tip it's hand before I make a move..
     
    easymon1 and KCalhoun like this.
  3. taojaxx

    taojaxx

    A bounce would be fun to watch. Basically J Po came and said "I'm gonna kick your ass, real good and for a long enough time, and it's gonna be painful". Need a resilient market to fight that back, but who knows?
    Rarely have I heard a central banker be so upfront, blunt and to the point. Draghi "Whatever it takes" maybe?
     
    KCalhoun likes this.
  4. maxinger

    maxinger

    29 AUG - Dead Monday.
     
  5. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    I'm basically betting all of Friday's profits on a red Monday premkt.

    I think the odds are slightly in favor of gap down or selling premkt, but often it bounces after extreme selling, a bit, for dead cat bounce.

    I'm taking the bet bc I think odds are slightly in favor of red, and the payoff if right could be large. So risk:reward makes sense. We'll see....
     
  6. zdreg

    zdreg

    Do everything.
     
    KCalhoun likes this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    There's of course likely to be a reaction on Monday to yesterday's move, but it would seem odds are yesterday was not the last of the move down. Profound huh? Nothing is certain. Trade price is all.
     
  8. Everyone and their mother is expecting carnage next week. Makes you wonder...

    The last few times we saw a similar weekly structure, the market was moderately down (70 % of the time) or rallied back above the prior week range (30 % of the time).

    Simply put, if we can hold the current lows early next week, it's not unlikely that we'll rally into next Friday's Close all the way back above this week's range.

    Or if it's a down week it may not be a brutal one. Not much of a prediction, I'll admit, but I think it's hard to predict when the data is not clear.

    I'm only suggesting that we might not see the carnage everyone is expecting. I know I'll be prepared for whatever might happen, so no worries on my end. Trading conditions will be good anyhow. :)
     
    KCalhoun likes this.
  9. If we look at Friday only, a relentless trend day down - the following Monday is actually more bullish than bearish. I'll keep the actual numbers/details to myself.

    If we open below yesterday's close and can't find a bid, watch out, though. Some of those days were big down days.

    Best to stay flexible.
     
    qwerty11 likes this.
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    I see 7 times, red Monday following red Friday, in $SPX the last year (including this past Monday):-
    !SPX Mon follow Fri.png
     
    #10     Aug 27, 2022
    qwerty11, KCalhoun and Laissez Faire like this.