CNN Poll: Biden expands lead over Trump after contentious debate and President's Covid diagnosis

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Frederick Foresight, Oct 6, 2020.

  1. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html

    Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

    Among likely voters, 57% say they back Biden and 41% Trump in the poll that was conducted entirely after the first debate and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public.

    Regardless of Biden's national lead, the race for the White House will ultimately come down to a handful of swing states that will drive the outcome in the Electoral College. The former vice president leads in several of those critical battlegrounds, but by more narrow margins than his national advantage. A poll is not a prediction of how the election will ultimately turn out but instead is a snapshot of the race as it currently stands.

    Likely voters broadly prefer Biden over Trump on a number of issues that voters consider critically important in the race, including the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), health care (59% to 39%), racial inequality in America (62% to 36%), nominations to the Supreme Court (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). The two are about even over who would better handle the economy (50% say Biden, 48% Trump), similar to where they have been among registered voters in recent polling.

    Biden's favorability ratings have also improved, with 52% of Americans now saying they have a positive impression of the former vice president, compared with 39% who have a positive view of Trump.

    Likely voters are more apt to consider Biden the candidate who would unite the country (61% Biden to 33% Trump), who is honest and trustworthy (58% Biden to 33% Trump), who cares about people like you (58% Biden to 38% Trump), who has a clear plan to solve the nation's problems (55% to 39%) and who would keep Americans safe from harm (55% to 43%).

    Although this is the first national CNN survey to report results among likely voters, a comparison of results among registered voters now to those from a survey about a month ago reveals Biden has made substantial gains in support among several key voting blocs.

    Biden has expanded his edge over Trump among women, from 57% to 37% in September to 66% to 32% now. That shift includes substantial gains for Biden among white women with college degrees and women of color. Among people of color generally, Biden's advantage has increased from 59% to 31% in September to 69% to 27% now. The former vice president has also made gains among younger voters, moderates and independents over the last month.

    It is important to note that these increases in support for Biden have not come alongside substantial decreases in backing for Trump. The President's core supporters remain as supportive of him as they have been, if not more. Among white men without college degrees, for example, Trump's support has increased from 61% in September to 67% now. But Trump does not appear to have made any gains among the groups his campaign needs to attract in order to dent Biden's longstanding lead.

    Compared with the last national CNN poll, the partisan composition of this poll is only slightly more Democratic (33% of all adults say they are Democrats now, compared with 30% in early September) and no less Republican (28% GOP now vs. 27% in early September). Among registered voters in the poll, 35% consider themselves Democrats, 30% Republican, those figures were 33% and 30% respectively in the previous CNN poll. When independents who lean toward one party or the other are added in, the results also show little movement, 53% of registered voters now are Democrats or lean that way, 43% are Republicans or lean that way. In last month's poll, those figures were 52% Democratic to 42% Republican.

    The shifts in this poll are similar to those seen in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday, which was conducted after the presidential debate but before the President's diagnosis of coronavirus was revealed.

    The poll suggests the debate itself may have helped to boost Biden. Those voters who say they watched last week's debate largely see Biden as having done the best job (57%), with only 26% saying Trump did best, similar to the divide in a CNN Instant Poll of voters on the night of the debate. Still, 14% report that neither did well.

    Most voters in the poll (64%) say that Trump has not done enough to denounce white supremacist groups, after being asked to do so at the debate and instead saying that the Proud Boys should "stand back and stand by." Among people of color, 76% say Trump hasn't done enough to denounce such groups.

    The issues that matter most to voters continue to vary dramatically with a voter's presidential preference. Trump's backers are far more likely than Biden supporters to say crime and safety (51% extremely important among Trump supporters vs. 33% among Biden supporters) and the economy (48% among Trump supporters, 36% among Biden supporters) are top concerns in their vote.

    Among Biden's supporters, 66% call coronavirus extremely important to their vote vs. 21% among Trump backers, 63% say race relations are important vs. 16% of Trump voters, 58% consider health care extremely important vs. 25% of Trump supporters and 51% say climate change is extremely important compared with just 5% of Trump supporters.

    One point of agreement emerges, though: About half of both Biden (53%) and Trump (48%) supporters call Supreme Court nominations extremely important.

    The survey finds that among likely voters, a small majority, 54% say they intend to cast their ballots on Election Day, 30% plan to cast ballots by mail and 14% say they will vote early in-person. Biden supporters continue to be far more likely than Trump supporters to say they will vote before Election Day, including 41% who plan to vote by mail and 19% who say they will vote early. Among Trump's backers, though, 76% say they will vote in-person on Election Day.

    Six in 10 Americans say they are confident that votes will be cast and counted accurately in the presidential election, up slightly since August. Registered voters who support Biden are becoming increasingly confident that votes in the country will be cast and counted accurately (75% now vs. 65% in August), while the share of Trump supporters who feel that way has softened some (from 50% to 44%).

    Although nearly all Americans agree (86%) that the loser of the presidential race has an obligation to concede once the results are certified, Trump supporters are slightly less likely to say that than they were in August (78% now vs. 83% in August, it was 94% among Biden supporters in both polls). Most say they don't expect Trump to accept the results and concede (58%), while 71% say Biden would. Most of Trump's supporters, though, say that they do believe the President would concede (63%).

    The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS October 1 through 4 among a random national sample of 1,205 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 likely voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, it is plus or minus 3.6 points for results among likely voters.
     
  2. I doubt it's actually going to be +16 on election day, but CNN polls were Clinton +5 this time 4 years ago.
     
    UsualName likes this.
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Not to worry.... Trump plans to send his own electors from swing states rather than the electors from the vote.

    Trump campaign discussing plans to appoint its own state electors, no matter the results: report
    A real nightmare scenario: The eight closest battleground states might send competing sets of electors to Congress
    https://www.salon.com/2020/10/06/tr...-state-electors-no-matter-the-results-report/

    Trump campaign officials and legal advisers are reportedly preparing to appoint their own state electors as a way to secure victory in a contested election, a move that would precipitate an unprecedented constitutional crisis.

    The country will in all likelihood not know the outcome of the presidential election on Election Day. It is likely, given a raft of threatening public statements from President Trump, that he will reject unfavorable results.

    The president is not directly elected by the people — the official votes are cast by electors on behalf of the voters in their states. Though states have historically chosen their electors by popular vote, the Constitution does not mandate that, saying only that a state shall appoint its electors "in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct."

    Every state has allowed its voters to make the call in every election since the late 1800s. But in 2000, the Supreme Court held in Bush v. Gore that the states "can take back the power to appoint electors."

    According to a Sept. 23 article in The Atlantic, campaign advisers to Trump, in conjunction with Republican state leaders, are preparing to test this theory. Sources in the Republican Party, at both state and national levels, say that the campaign is considering a plan to "bypass" the popular vote results and install its own electors in key battleground states where the legislatures are controlled by Republicans.

    Republicans control both legislative bodies in the six closest battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of those six, both Arizona and Florida have Republican governors.

    After the national election, the plan goes, the Trump campaign would cry foul about rampant fraud and demand that state legislators ignore the ballot tabulations and choose their electors directly. If the campaign can sustain doubt or confusion about the ballot count, legislators will feel more and more pressure to take up the responsibility before the Dec. 8 deadline when electors' names are sent to Congress for verification.

    The Atlantic reported that a Trump campaign legal adviser said this effort would be framed as protecting the will of the people.

    "The state legislatures will say, 'All right, we've been given this constitutional power. We don't think the results of our own state are accurate, so here's our slate of electors that we think properly reflect the results of our state,' " the legal adviser told the outlet. The adviser said that by extending long windows for mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day, Democrats have exposed the tabulation process to allegations of inaccuracy and fraud.

    "If you have this notion that ballots can come in for I don't know how many days — in some states a week, 10 days — then that onslaught of ballots just gets pushed back and pushed back and pushed back," he said. "So pick your poison. Is it worse to have electors named by legislators or to have votes received by Election Day?"

    When The Atlantic asked the Trump campaign about plans to circumvent the vote and appoint loyal electors, and about other strategies discussed in the article, the deputy national press secretary did not directly address the questions. "It's outrageous that President Trump and his team are being villainized for upholding the rule of law and transparently fighting for a free and fair election," Thea McDonald said in an email. "The mainstream media are giving the Democrats a free pass for their attempts to completely uproot the system and throw our election into chaos." Trump is fighting for a trustworthy election, she wrote, "and any argument otherwise is a conspiracy theory intended to muddy the waters."

    Three Pennsylvania Republican leaders told The Atlantic that they had already talked about appointing electors directly, and one of them — the chair of the state's Republican Party — said he had discussed the possibility with the Trump campaign.

    "I've mentioned it to them, and I hope they're thinking about it too," Lawrence Tabas said. "I just don't think this is the right time for me to be discussing those strategies and approaches, but [direct appointment of electors] is one of the options. It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution." He said that if the voting process "has significant flaws," then people could "lose faith and confidence" in the system.

    Jake Corman, the majority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate, said that if the count draws on for too long, the legislature will have to choose electors. "We don't want to go down that road, but we understand where the law takes us, and we'll follow the law," he said.

    That road could lead to a scenario where six battleground states have competing sets of electors, each authorized by different branches of the state — one by the Republican legislature, one by the Democratic governor. Even in Arizona and Florida, where Republicans fully control the government, an independent set of Democratic electors could try to certify their own votes for Democratic nominee Joe Biden in an effort to kick the final call up to Congress.

    This almost happened during the 2000 Florida recount: Republican Gov. Jeb Bush certified electors for his brother, George W. Bush, before the recount had been settled. The Gore campaign was ready to assemble its own group of Democratic electors to cast rival ballots, but after the Supreme Court ruled against Gore, he conceded — just days before the Electoral College convened.

    Given this plan, The Atlantic reports, it's possible that mirror-image state electors could turn in competing sets of votes, submitted "to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate" — who, by the way, is Vice President Mike Pence.

    The contest at that point gets very complicated, but plays out in one of three ways: If Democrats take the Senate back and hold onto the House, then Biden wins; if Republicans hold the Senate and flip the House, a less likely scenario, then Trump wins; but if Congress remains divided after the election, the Constitution does not offer a solution.

    As Constitutional scholar Norm Ornstein told The Atlantic, "Then we get thrown into a world where anything could happen."
     
  4. The man is a villain.

    It would almost be comical, if it were not pathological, how he projects his own lack of scruples onto those he considers his enemies.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2020
  5. smallfil

    smallfil

    When the Democrats are all out with their cheating apparatus on a grand scale, one would be an utter idiot not to consider all possible scenarios. The best case scenario is President Donald Trump wins in a landslide, nullifying all efforts to cheat by the Democrats. Worst case scenario is the outcome is close and cheating goes on a wide scale. A number of cases of voter fraud goes before the US Supreme Court where it decides on which ballots should be counted. That would be a huge mess and the issue of electors could come to play.
     
  6. UsualName

    UsualName

    A point about this lopsided cnn poll and the NBC one from a couple of days ago (Biden +14):

    No, Biden does not have a lead in the teens nationally.

    You often hear right wingers use the term “shy Trump voters” because like most things they hear things and it sounds good to them but they don’t understand what it mean.

    These wide gap polls do represent “shy Trump voters”, or, in reality, a demoralized Republican Party after a week that included

    • Trump’s tax revelations
    • Trump’s crazy debate performance
    • Trump catching Covid and going to the hospital and all the fallout and stunts
    • Covid spreading throughout the White House and among GOP Senators

    It was a bad week. Make no mistake though these polls actually do represent people who will vote Trump but are not telling that to pollsters.

    Biden is probably legit +6 right now, losing Florida and tied in Pennsylvania.
     
  7. If the primaries are any indication, expect record turnouts due to the ease of voting by mail. This is not good for Republicans who always try to suppress the vote in order to win.
     
  8. Corto

    Corto

    Plus this:

    upload_2020-10-6_10-2-22.png
     
  9. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I've mentioned this before. It is because the big banks know fiscal spending will be flooded into the system (more so than it is now) with an all blue house, senate and Presidency. This would be good for them (the banks).
     
  10. VEGASDESERT

    VEGASDESERT

    This may sound crazy but, Goldman Sachs doesn't know jack shit.

    They are always playing catch up with there "forecasts"

    They are really good at collecting fees, thats what they're good at.
     
    #10     Oct 6, 2020