Cleveland FED - Inflation Nowcasting

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Nighthawk, Jun 12, 2024.

  1. Q.E.D.

    Q.E.D.

    There are many valid reasons much of the public views inflation as much too high -- and it is not due to bad press by Biden or the Fed.

    Virtually all inflation numbers are distorted. Decades ago, there was no CPI, it was Cost of Living Index. That followed a basket of commodities, and monitored price changes over time.

    But CPI is dynamic: if a good such as steak goes too high, the BLS assumes people switch to hamburger -- and then to chicken -- and the CPI is no longer as high.

    But buying chicken, rather than steak previously, is a loss of purchasing power -- i.e., inflation.

    The BLS / Gov't has done this constantly. And now the CPI is adjusted at least every two years.

    More: If a product, such as a cell phone, computer, etc., adds new features --even if they are features the consumer does not value -- the BLS imputes a value for that "good," and mitigates a price increase, for instance.

    Another factor, I just realized taking our dog to a new holistic vet recently. Use to those expenses, the $ 800 bill was not a surprise. However, the vet added 3% to the bill because we were using a credit card.

    Many other especially small business add not just misc service fees, but specific about 3% if one uses a credit card. I bet the BLS does not include that 3% surcharge in their collection of prices.

    The "real" inflation numbers are several times the precise, but made-up, reported numbers.
     
    nitrene likes this.