Well, we know how well that's gone with jolly old England and CHF. So, what are your bets? I want to put in something. Probably shorting FXI when it pops, but that's easy. I'm thinking something bigger.
Tariffs will put a nice floor on it, but I can see yuan depreciating just about the amount required to make tariffs ineffective. Interesting.
tricky trade... the real exchange rate is like 1:20... but...always tricky when something is not driven by supply demand.
China is going to devalue their currency to offset the tariff. The question is how are they going to control the devaluation to maintain stability of the Yuan. Are they going to raise interest rate? Are they just going to use their foreign reserve? How big is this reserve? How will they maintain this reserve? What if Trump slap an additional tariff on them after he blocked off the Iranian oil from going to China? Shit doesn't look good for China. The only thing they got going to propaganda, which the rest of the world can see through. It is not going to be a pound/Soros situation for China. It's going to be a Chinazuela situation!
Yes, depreciated 10% to take care of the 10% tariff. Probably will depreciate more now that the tariff is 25%.