China outlook even worse than imagined....is that so. hmmm could have fooled me...

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, May 12, 2015.

  1. S2007S

    S2007S

    Why this is even a headline is baffling me, this has been known for years that China's economy is worse than what has been shown....just the ghost cities and ghost malls they have built the last decade alone have been questioned over and over, once China slows and the markets finally take notice thats going to be pretty much it, the growth story as we know it will be over and once China slows the world slows, its a simple as that....thats all we have left in this world is debt and more debt and even more debt, China cut its rates again, yep thats going to work, ha, its not even working here in the US and we have had 0% interest rates for years.......thats not how economies grow, every country is on a credit binge, they believe that is the growth to prosperity, but it never is and never will be..one fact I pulled out of this article states that whenever a country increases its debt to GDP sharply over 5 years, in the next 5 years there is a 70% chance of a crisis and a 100% of a major economic slowdown, that also sounds like the work of the US as well, so not only are we going to see a crisis in China but it will be here in the US as well, then the major economic slowdown comes, lets hope the next crisis doesnt bring the fed back in, the reason why we are headed into the next crisis is because of the fed, remove the fed and all their QE and right now we wouldn't be in this situation, let the free markets work just once, JUST ONCE let the free markets work, let the cycle run its course without the interference of the fed making these judgment calls. It has only created another crisis one that is bigger and badder than the one just before it....thank you fed and BUBBLE ben bernanke and friends and all the rest of the central banks for creating the next crisis....



    China outlook even worse than imagined: Morgan Stanley

    Lawrence Delevingne | @ldelevingne
    49 Mins AgoCNBC.com





    The worst of the Chinese economic slowdown is likely still ahead because of the nation's debt, according to a senior Morgan Stanley investment strategist.

    "China, to try and sustain its growth rate in the post-financial-crisis era, has engaged in the largest credit binge of any emerging market in history," said Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management,

    Sharma, speaking Tuesday at the Global Private Equity Conference in Washington, D.C., predicted that the credit boom would cause problems.

    Whenever a country increases its debt to gross domestic productsharply over five years, in the next five years there's a 70 percent chance of a financial crisis and 100 percent chance of a major economic slowdown, according to Morgan Stanley research.



    The Chinese government this week cut interest rates for the third time in six months because of projected 7 percent GDP growth this year, the lowest level in more than two decades.

    Sharma said the slow growth he forecast would be around 4 percent or 5 percent over the next five years, about half the rate of what it used to be. (Tweet this)

    "If China follows this template, it really is payback time," he said.





    Another speaker at the conference, former U.S. Gen. Wesley Clark, took a less grim view.

    "I'm not as worried about the buildup of debt in China as other countries," the founder of Wesley Clark & Associates said.

    He cited two reasons. The renminbi is not fully convertible to other currencies, and the Chinese economy still has elements of central control.

    "Every year people at these business conferences say the demise of the Chinese economy is coming very rapidly," Clark added. "But it hasn't happened. And President Xi is not going to let it happen if he can avoid it."

    Another China bull, Robert Petty, managing partner and co-founder of Clearwater Capital Partners, said China can forestall its debt problems.

    "We believe the balance sheet of China absolutely has the capacity to do two things: term it out and kick the can down the road," Petty said.
     
  2. Baron

    Baron Administrator

    Please stop posting your message in a headline size font. We can all read the regular print just fine.
     
  3. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I'll go one further and ask that he please stop posting! :)