China & India to surpass US economy by 2030

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Cuddles, Jan 25, 2019.

  1. Cuddles

    Cuddles

     
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    Seems like voodoo economics to me if the numbers represent country GDP.

    2030 is only 11 years away. In 2017, US GDP was U$19.3T, China GDP = U$12.2T and India GDP = U$2.6T.

    They are projecting that India's GDP will grow at 22.8% a year compounding over the next 11 years and China's GDP will grow at 12.6% every year?

    Reminded me of newspaper articles saying back in the 1980s that Japan would overtake the US by the year 2000.
     
    Cuddles and Humble Investor like this.
  3. JSOP

    JSOP

    Well if the West start to outsource to India like what they did to China for the next 11 years. I am not surprised that India's economy would grow that fast. China's economy was growing at pretty much 10% each year for the last 20 years. It's reached a bit of a saturation point now but India's economy hasn't started much yet. Once it gears more into speed, you never know.
     
  4. zdreg

    zdreg

    Truly you jest.
    countries are growing protectionist and you come up with your thesis. has India ever grown 10% in a year?
     
  5. srinir

    srinir

  6. India, Indonesia - lol
     
  7. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    Normalcy bias is alive and well on ET!
     
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    Couple of comments:

    1. Looking at China's GDP growth curve over the past 20 years, I can curve fit and project for the next 10-15 years the grow would asymptote to ~3-4% a year at the end of the period. Inertia alone would prevent it to increase its growth from 6% today to 12-15% tomorrow and for the next 10-15 years.

    2. As for India, its average growth rate for the last decade was ~6-8 %. Country don't move rapidly and to all of a sudden growing at 23% a year, 4x current rate seemed very unreasonable. After all there is no major internal/external stimuluses to cause that to happen.
     
  9. JSOP

    JSOP

    Actually already once according to the statistics provided by @srinir, but will surely grow 10%+ per year in the future IF the West chooses it as its outsource target. I was talking about the future not the past.
     
  10. JSOP

    JSOP

    23% per year might be too much but 10%+ per year should be attainable is the external stimuli aka the west choosing it as the outsource is coming up.
     
    #10     Jan 26, 2019