What could be a reasonable estimate of true current Foreign Exchange Reserves ? And how much they spend a month defending the rmb ? Old articles but interesting reads... https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordon...g-its-foreign-exchange-reserves/#5e9286e063e3 https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...as-central-bank-is-losing-money/#5a0af3ca7e1f The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, reported that Beijing’s foreign exchange reserves rose $11.4 billion last month. The increase marked the end of five months of consecutive declines. The addition to the reserves, after months of record capital outflows, took the financial community by surprise. As the Wall Street Journal notes, “reserves are a proxy for capital inflows and outflows.” During the month, net capital flow, as calculated by Bloomberg, was $62 billion outbound. Even though Bloomberg counts money left by Chinese parties in dollars as outflow, it is nonetheless not possible to reconcile its figure with the reported increase in reserves. More technically, changes in the reserves over time have tracked the foreign currency position of banks. As Bloomberg reports, “policymakers buy or sell reserves to partially offset capital flowing in and out of the nation.” Here, Beijing’s official reporting becomes “mysterious,” as a leading American academic told me last week. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the central bank unit administering the reserves, reported that Chinese banks in October sold a net 190.9 billion yuan ($30.0 billion) of foreign exchange for clients. That number should more or less match the change in reserves for the month, but there is a $41.4 billion discrepancy that is, on its face, inexplicable.
They own their largest commercial banks, PBOC reserves matter but it's only a fraction of their wealth gotten from ripped off America!
the real estate value of the biggest 4 cities BSGS is enough to buy all of the USA.. absurd right? the real exchange rate should be more like 1:20 instead of 1:6.5 but the flow is tightly controlled, so even though the house prices are jacked up it is not possible for everyone to cash out at that price and move the money overseas... a beauty of their system.
U had me curious enough to google the topic, without success. Lazy search maybe, do you have any serious link to share ? Might be right though, from the link below, but that only represents the homes sold in a certain amount of time, it doesn't say much about the total value of US and China rel estate, plus there's a lot of unbuilt land in teh US : "China’s property market – worth seven times that of the U.S., based on total value of new homes sold – is weakening… again." https://stansberrypacific.com/educa...n/worlds-biggest-real-estate-market-collapse/ BSGS is probably worth at least 1/7th of the whole Chinese market
yeah something like that... iirc Japan at it's bubble peak also had RE values exceeding the US. anyway - say the value of the countries are about equal roughly, as China already is higher than the US on the PPP, but is trailing in the nominal GDP... and currently if China is valued at 7X, does that mean the exchange rate should be closer to 40:1? so long term the RMB short is a sure bet... but you never know how the central banks will manipulate it.
In 2015, some argued they spent between 50-100 Billion US a month defending there dollar, destroying there reserves... Since mid 16 with capital outflow restriction, they likely have to spend a bit less every month. Here is 15 article https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordon...lion-a-month-defending-the-yuan/#4d81e7241ee0 Here is a FT article Nov 2018... https://www.ft.com/content/43f2c4e6-e260-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee There is no way they are even above 2 Trillion in Foreign Reserves... Anywhere between 1-1.5 Trillion in Foreign Reserves is appropriate, given the amount of cash they burn to defend it on a constant basis, 3 Trillion in reserves is bigger fiction then there reported Economic Numbers. They are selling US Treasuries, that's how desperate for US Dollars they are. Interesting what will happen in the next few months, the second it hits 7, it means they are terminated and have no cash left, they will go bankrupt protecting there dollar