SELL CHFJPY @ 170 BUY NZDCHF @ 0.5345 The reason for NZDCHF is to get a positive carry with this combo while waiting for the JPY to strengthen. SL's 0.5% on both. RR 1:5. If SL's hit then re entry at same place as original entry. Cheers
JPY has been, and likely will continue across the board, to weaken. Why look for that to change? Why not just let it happen, then take a position? BTW looking at the main 7 JPY pairs CHFJPY is the strongest, NZDJPY the weakest - relatively speaking.
I'd rather sell into new highs than wait for a confirmation sell off just to see it trade back up again into my stop to make a double top and what not. 170 is a level that i would assume to have some stop triggering effect. As stops trigger, reversals happen. So, i'm jumping in here. I have stops in place here too, so it gives me no benefit for waiting for a confirmation lower price to short. Also, i have projected targets and the higher i get in the bigger is my RR hence the more losses i can take. If i waited for the market to trade down i would have lower RR because i can't just lower my TP. It's the targets that i know will print that make me reverse engineer my entry. Yeah, i know i trade a lot differently than most people here. Don't hate me b/c of it. Which is why i chose them. Now compare yield differencials and adjust the cashflow value accordingly.
So, as the market falls, at what point do you consider an entry now? How much decline is enough for you to say that yes, NOW it's time to short? Thanks.
Actually looking at daily chart in hindsight (missed it at the time) the top was confirmed, at least by one of the ways I determine it, on 11/14 with a close below the -high bar close- low:-
As the market is moving in my favour very fast, i'm closing the positions. NZDCHF +17 pips CHFJPY +320 pips Cheers.
Enter again. -Chfjpy @ 169.10 +Nzdchf @ 0.5323 Sl,tp's same except chfjpy first SL is 170.85 just like the first time traded. Everything else the same
Move might just be getting started:- (Bloomberg) Treasury yields are a little higher as traders navigate between a higher-for-longer narrative on the one hand and betting on a rate-cut bonanza from central banks next year on the other. The reality check today is coming from Japan, where yields are surging as hints from the country’s central bank leadership fuel speculation that the end of negative interest rates might be closer.
I have no doubt that JPY will rise like mad EVENTUALLY. But holding jpy longs against majors costs a lot of money and market can be flat for months.