Hi, I would like to collect your opinions on my situation. I have 2 positions in gbpusd 1) 2 lot short @1.38300 , PnL -1200€ 2) 2 lot short @1.38680, PnL -550€ This is a current drawdown of 21% of the account. Given the current situation at GBP, I am not sure how the odds are that the price will continue to move to 1.400 or even go further. What do you think about the current news/inflation risk situation? Maybe any suggestions on how to proceed with my positions? Thanks!
What time frame are you using? In any case you should never let any position take more than 2% of your capital.
You are welcome. I suspect GBP/USD will hit some resistance around $1.3935 and pullback a bit (or even reverse) but don't count on it to bail you out. Just my opinion. Good luck.
Cut at least part of the loss to limit current drawdown to 10% so you can withstand deeper adverse move and hope for a major reversal
You could hedge out with a USDCHF positions to mitigate any upside risk in your GBPUSD position. GBPUSD is approaching the 200 sma on the 4hr so there is a potential bounce incoming if you can hold on.
Get out now. I say that not because you are losing money but because you don't know whether you probably will lose or probably will win. If you don't know you probably will win you should not be in the market. Go back to studying market behaviour and develop a proper strategy with a coherent risk management.
Are you on or offside this moment with respect to the longer term FEER? If offside, i personally would start to reduce exposure. Of course i could be wrong, so thats not actual advice
Its not a nice situation to be in. I'm thinking that the GU will go higher to 1.391 or 1.394 and then retrace because looking at retail positions, I don't believe they are ready to do a big run up just yet. Therefore, I think if you can hold on, it will retrace down and it might be enough for you to break even on your 2nd trade but not enough to break even in both trades? If you do manage to close your 2nd trade, it is worth considering taking the loss in your other trade (at the same time) and getting out of the markets for a while until you have a winning strategy in place. Clearly you'll need to work on your strategy and skills and that will take some time but if you knew how to recover trades, you could hedge one of both of your trades and then un-hedge them gradually when GU reaches significant levels or significant MA's.